Guardians vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:41 AM
  • The Rangers (65-86) are +120 underdogss vs the Guardians (85-67)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-6), 5.28 ERA
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Cole Ragans (0-2), 5.40 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSW

The Cleveland Guardians (-145) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (+120) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35pm EDT in Arlington.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5.

The Guardians vs Rangers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 85-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 81-70 ATS.

Guardians vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5O 8 -110-145
Rangers +1.5U 8 -110+120

Guardians vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rangers vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 34 away games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 70 games (+12.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+22.30 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 67 of his last 112 games (+21.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 62 games (+18.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 54 of his last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 away games (+18.10 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 30 away games (+14.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 away games (+13.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.65 Units / 51% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 80-72 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 2.47% ROI).

  • 85-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +18 Units / 9.48% ROI
  • 67-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -9.76% ROI
  • 76-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.05 Units / 1.22% ROI

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 81-70 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 1.59% ROI).

  • 65-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -10.87% ROI
  • 74-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 0.45% ROI
  • 67-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -8.26% ROI

Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 60% (600/997) in two strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 55% of Aaron Civale’s pitches (552/997) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 61% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (17/46) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 55% (682/1,239) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Cole Ragans: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed batters are hitting .359 (14-for-39) against Cole Ragans this month (3 games) — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 10th Percentile.

Cole Ragans has allowed an OPS of 1.008 (43 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .715 — 11th Percentile.

Cole Ragans has thrown his changeup 41% of the time (69/169) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.

Cole Ragans has thrown his changeup 35% of the time (72/203) this month (3 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 96th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Guardians are 15-55 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Guardians are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Guardians are 49-5 (.907) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rangers are just 50-10 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Rangers are just 21-68 (.236) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Rangers are just 4-68 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Rangers are 36-11 (.766) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Guardians hitters have just 736 strikeouts in 4,309 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,027 strikeouts in 5,743 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Rangers hitters have a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .299 (4,264 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

13% of Rangers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (754/5,613 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of .940 (346 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.58 (692.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 14 of 316 batters (4%) over the past seven days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 129 of 1,334 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Rangers have won just just 17% of the time at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 536 of 5,724 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 51% of their games this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Rangers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Elbow, D60
  • Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
  • Spencer Howard (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hip, D60
  • Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
  • Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Side, D15
  • Jose Adolis García (Rangers): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Dane Dunning (Rangers): Hip, Day-to-Day
  • Nicholas Solak (Rangers): Foot, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rangers vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.