- The Rangers (65-86) are +120 underdogss vs the Guardians (85-67)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-6), 5.28 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Cole Ragans (0-2), 5.40 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Cleveland Guardians (-145) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (+120) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35pm EDT in Arlington.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Guardians vs Rangers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 85-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 81-70 ATS.
Guardians vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 | O 8 -110 | -145 |
| Rangers | +1.5 | U 8 -110 | +120 |
Guardians vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 34 away games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 70 games (+12.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+22.30 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 67 of his last 112 games (+21.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 62 games (+18.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 54 of his last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 away games (+18.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 30 away games (+14.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 away games (+13.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.65 Units / 51% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 80-72 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 2.47% ROI).
- 85-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +18 Units / 9.48% ROI
- 67-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -9.76% ROI
- 76-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.05 Units / 1.22% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 81-70 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 1.59% ROI).
- 65-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -10.87% ROI
- 74-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 0.45% ROI
- 67-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -8.26% ROI
Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 60% (600/997) in two strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 55% of Aaron Civale’s pitches (552/997) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 61% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (17/46) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 55% (682/1,239) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Cole Ragans: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .359 (14-for-39) against Cole Ragans this month (3 games) — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 10th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has allowed an OPS of 1.008 (43 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .715 — 11th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has thrown his changeup 41% of the time (69/169) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has thrown his changeup 35% of the time (72/203) this month (3 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Guardians are 15-55 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Guardians are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Guardians are 49-5 (.907) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rangers are just 50-10 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Rangers are just 21-68 (.236) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Rangers are just 4-68 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Rangers are 36-11 (.766) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 736 strikeouts in 4,309 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,027 strikeouts in 5,743 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .299 (4,264 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
13% of Rangers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (754/5,613 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .940 (346 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.58 (692.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 14 of 316 batters (4%) over the past seven days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 129 of 1,334 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Rangers have won just just 17% of the time at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 536 of 5,724 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 51% of their games this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hip, D60
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Side, D15
- Jose Adolis García (Rangers): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Dane Dunning (Rangers): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Solak (Rangers): Foot, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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