- The – (67-32) are favorites vs the – (67-32)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-8), 4.09 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (6-6), 3.90 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians () visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays () on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Guardians vs Rays Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 51-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 45-55 ATS.
Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | O | ||
| Rays | U |
Guardians vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 74.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 39 away games (+9.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+11.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Rays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rene Pinto | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Rays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Rene Pinto | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
Rays vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rene Pinto | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Rays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Plesac | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+9.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 80 games (+9.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 53 away games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+5.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games at home (+4.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+4.05 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 53-46 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 2.14% ROI).
- 51-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 3.84% ROI
- 46-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -4.31% ROI
- 46-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -4.31% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 45-55 against the Run Line (-9.85 Units / -8.05% ROI).
- 53-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -5.62% ROI
- 46-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 50-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -0.98% ROI
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .388 (26-for-67) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (2/14) against Zach Plesac — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.044 (76 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .711 — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .597 (40 Total Bases / 67 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .397 — third Percentile.
Corey Kluber: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (545/1,584) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has not walked any of the 26 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has a strikeout rate of just 12% (12 SO in 99 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 21% — sixth Percentile.
Corey Kluber has struck out just 4% (1/25) of left-handed batters he faced — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 9-41 (.180) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Guardians are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Guardians are 21-8 (.724) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Guardians are 33-2 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 23-7 (.767) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Rays are just 44-6 (.880) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Rays are 10-8 (.556) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 34-6 (.850) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have just 487 strikeouts in 2,792 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .618 (948 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .327 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 749 strikeouts in 3,095 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .237 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Rays hitters have 885 strikeouts in 3,717 PA’s (24%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 20 double plays in 334 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Guardians have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Guardians pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 179 of 2,884 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 683 of 9,681 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 48 of 894 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 141 of 2,356 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Harold Ramírez (Rays): Thumb, D10
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
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