- The Astros (66-36) are -145 favorites vs the Mariners (55-47)
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (2-3), 3.50 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-3), 4.24 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Sunday, July 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 55-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-49 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -115 | -145 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 72.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 away games (+18.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+9.60 Units / 11% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 46 games at home (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Odorizzi | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +125 |
| George Kirby | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -175 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -160 |
| George Kirby | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 34 games (+19.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 away games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 89 games (+19.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 100 games (+17.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 86 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+12.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 83 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 51-51 against the Run Line (-7.95 Units / -5.82% ROI).
- 55-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 7.28% ROI
- 48-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -7.41% ROI
- 52-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -0.79% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 53-49 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 4.88% ROI).
- 66-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 4.88% ROI
- 38-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.45 Units / -23.78% ROI
- 60-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.95 Units / 15.81% ROI
George Kirby: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 10 of 291 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 4 of 147 left-handed batters (3%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 70% (416/594) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has allowed an OBP of just .224 (147 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 97th Percentile.
Jacob Odorizzi: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (603/1,339) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (18/71) against Jake Odorizzi this month (4 games) — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (6/34) against Jake Odorizzi this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Jake Odorizzi since the start of last season is 386.5 feet — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 399.4
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Mariners are 28-24 (.538) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Mariners are 41-1 (.976) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .884.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 58-10 (.853) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 34-21 (.618) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Astros are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Astros are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have drawn 111 walks in 1,023 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 602 strikeouts in 3,281 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 732 strikeouts in 3,941 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 1,979 strikeouts in 10,103 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Mariners pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Back, D10
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Tomaso Milone (Mariners): Neck, D15
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler France (Mariners): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Wrist, D10
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