Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 31

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 31, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (66-36) are -145 favorites vs the Mariners (55-47)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (2-3), 3.50 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-3), 4.24 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Sunday, July 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 55-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-49 ATS.

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -165O 8 -105+120
Astros -1.5 +135U 8 -115-145

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 72.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 away games (+18.00 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+9.60 Units / 11% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 46 games at home (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.35 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)

Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Chas McCormick 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jake Meyers 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jose Altuve 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Chas McCormick 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jake Meyers 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Jose Altuve 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Chas McCormick 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jake Meyers 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Odorizzi 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
George Kirby 4.5 +125 4.5 -175
Jake Odorizzi 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
George Kirby 3.5 -165 3.5 +115
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 34 games (+19.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 away games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 89 games (+19.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 100 games (+17.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 86 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+12.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 83 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 51-51 against the Run Line (-7.95 Units / -5.82% ROI).

  • 55-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 7.28% ROI
  • 48-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -7.41% ROI
  • 52-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -0.79% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 53-49 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 4.88% ROI).

  • 66-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 4.88% ROI
  • 38-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.45 Units / -23.78% ROI
  • 60-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.95 Units / 15.81% ROI

George Kirby has walked 10 of 291 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

George Kirby has walked 4 of 147 left-handed batters (3%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.

George Kirby has a strike rate of 70% (416/594) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.

George Kirby has allowed an OBP of just .224 (147 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 97th Percentile.

Jacob Odorizzi: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (603/1,339) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (18/71) against Jake Odorizzi this month (4 games) — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (6/34) against Jake Odorizzi this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

The average home run distance against Jake Odorizzi since the start of last season is 386.5 feet — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 399.4

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Mariners are 28-24 (.538) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Mariners are 41-1 (.976) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .884.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 58-10 (.853) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 34-21 (.618) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Astros are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Astros are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters have drawn 111 walks in 1,023 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Astros hitters have just 602 strikeouts in 3,281 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 732 strikeouts in 3,941 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 1,979 strikeouts in 10,103 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Mariners pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • Dylan Moore (Mariners): Back, D10
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Tomaso Milone (Mariners): Neck, D15
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Tyler France (Mariners): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
  • Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Wrist, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.