- The Brewers (83-73) are -190 favorites vs the Marlins (65-91)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (14-8), 2.32 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (11-8), 3.11 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Miami Marlins (+155) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-190) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 65-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-90 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 6 -115 | +155 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | U 6 -105 | -190 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -115 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.70 Units / 70% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 75-81 against the Run Line (-17.3 Units / -8.41% ROI).
- 65-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.05 Units / -16.2% ROI
- 69-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.7 Units / -10.25% ROI
- 79-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 2.01% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-90 against the Run Line (-32.1 Units / -17.06% ROI).
- 83-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -8.67% ROI
- 75-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 74-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.25 Units / -4.22% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (94/528) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (104/593) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,001/1,388) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last three games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (159/225) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (1,099/1,650) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (93/219) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
109 of Corbin Burnes’ 231 strikeouts (47%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 49-14 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Marlins are just 52-9 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Marlins are just 27-86 (.239) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Brewers are 8-53 (.131) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are 8-56 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (2,957 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Marlins hitters have 818 strikeouts in 2,957 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .269 (1,261 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,957 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have 422 strikeouts in 1,650 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 792 strikeouts in 3,189 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 11 of 219 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Finger, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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