- The Cardinals (41-34) are -130 favorites vs the Marlins (33-38)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (5-3), 2.61 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright (5-5), 3.32 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-130) on Monday, June 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 33-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 41-34 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +110 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -130 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Monday‘s matchup with 72.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 away games (+6.55 Units / 92% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.70 Units / 78% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+9.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 100% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Cardinals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -120 |
| Pablo Lopez | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 36 away games (+7.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+5.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+5.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+4.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+1.85 Units / 7% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 37-34 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.16% ROI).
- 33-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -8.75% ROI
- 37-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 1.14% ROI
- 33-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.15 Units / -9.21% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 41-34 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 4.42% ROI).
- 41-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.1% ROI
- 38-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 1.63% ROI
- 33-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -10.47% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .150 (6-for-40) against Pablo Lopez on low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .275 — 94th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (55/134) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (97/331) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .200 (8 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .431 — 96th Percentile.
Adam Wainwright: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (35/224) against Adam Wainwright this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (44/257) against Adam Wainwright this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (94/584) against Adam Wainwright this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 68% of the time (622/922) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Marlins are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Marlins are 22-4 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Marlins are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Marlins are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cardinals are just 2-28 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Cardinals are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Cardinals are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 179 extra-base hits out of 415 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have 206 extra-base hits out of 487 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Cardinals are batting .265 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 16% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.35 (1057.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 67 of 666 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 195 of 2,085 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
- Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Génesis Cabrera (Cardinals): COVID-19, D10
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Undisclosed, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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