Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 27, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cardinals (41-34) are -130 favorites vs the Marlins (33-38)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (5-3), 2.61 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright (5-5), 3.32 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-130) on Monday, June 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Marlins vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 33-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 41-34 ATS.

Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -200O 7.5 -110+110
Cardinals -1.5 +165U 7.5 -110-130

Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Monday‘s matchup with 72.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 away games (+6.55 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.70 Units / 78% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+9.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Dylan Carlson has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 41% ROI)

Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Juan Yepez 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Cardinals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Brendan Donovan 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Juan Yepez 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Nolan Arenado 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Cardinals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Juan Yepez 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Cardinals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Wainwright 4.5 -115 4.5 -120
Pablo Lopez 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 36 away games (+7.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+5.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+5.65 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+4.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+1.85 Units / 7% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 37-34 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.16% ROI).

  • 33-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -8.75% ROI
  • 37-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 1.14% ROI
  • 33-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.15 Units / -9.21% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 41-34 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 4.42% ROI).

  • 41-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.1% ROI
  • 38-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 1.63% ROI
  • 33-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -10.47% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .150 (6-for-40) against Pablo Lopez on low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .275 — 94th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (55/134) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (97/331) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .200 (8 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .431 — 96th Percentile.

Adam Wainwright: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (35/224) against Adam Wainwright this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (44/257) against Adam Wainwright this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (94/584) against Adam Wainwright this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 68% of the time (622/922) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Marlins are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.

The Marlins are 22-4 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Marlins are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.

The Marlins are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Cardinals are just 2-28 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Cardinals are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Cardinals are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .897.

Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Marlins are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Cardinals hitters have 179 extra-base hits out of 415 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 206 extra-base hits out of 487 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Cardinals are batting .265 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Marlins have won just 16% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.35 (1057.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 67 of 666 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 195 of 2,085 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
  • Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Génesis Cabrera (Cardinals): COVID-19, D10
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Undisclosed, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.