Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (97-58) are -190 favorites vs the Marlins (64-90)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-7), 3.56 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (12-5), 3.52 ERA
  • Watch the game on WPIX

The Miami Marlins (+155) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-190) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 64-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-71 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -140O 7 -120+155
Mets -1.5 +115U 7 +100-190

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 61.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 72 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 44 games at home (+18.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Darin Ruf 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
James McCann 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Darin Ruf 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
James McCann 0.5 -110 0.5 -130

Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Darin Ruf 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
James McCann 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Taijuan Walker 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
Jesus Luzardo 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 away games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 41% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 73-81 against the Run Line (-19.3 Units / -9.52% ROI).

  • 64-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.55 Units / -16.64% ROI
  • 68-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -10.27% ROI
  • 78-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 2.03% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 84-71 against the Run Line (+11.85 Units / 6.11% ROI).

  • 97-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 1.64% ROI
  • 81-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 4.14% ROI
  • 67-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.05 Units / -12.94% ROI

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .846 (44 Total Bases / 52 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .396 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .149 (26-for-175) against Jesus Luzardo on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.263 (61 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .695 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (16/54) against Jesus Luzardo this month (4 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.

Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have chased just 121 of Taijuan Walker’s 537 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (15/87) against Taijuan Walker — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 56 of Taijuan Walker’s 226 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 25%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 162 of Taijuan Walker’s 754 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Marlins are just 32-46 (.410) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Marlins are just 49-13 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are just 10-26 (.278) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Mets are 85-3 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 47-31 (.603) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .272 (1,244 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Marlins hitters have 809 strikeouts in 2,940 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .632 (2,940 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,940 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (3,076 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Mets hitters have just 795 strikeouts in 4,078 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (4,078 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .325 (8,142 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have walked 26 of 425 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have walked 5 of 176 batters (3%) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.