- The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-200) on Wednesday, April 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 4-7 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 +105 | +165 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -125 | -200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+9.30 Units / 113% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.85 Units / 85% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.70 Units / 67% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 4-8 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -40.88% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -15.21% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 4.21% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -13.11% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-7 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -32.88% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -30.53% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 4.47% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -11.34% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 51% (87/170) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 13 of 35 batters (37%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 27% (31/116) against Edward Cabrera in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 46 of 326 batters (14%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (193 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 80.4
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.2 MPH against his fastballs since the 2021 season (615 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 90.4
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the 2020 season (576 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the 2021 season (473 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 107-18 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are just 119-75 (.613) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Marlins are just 10-36 (.217) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Marlins are just 23-70 (.247) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 15-62 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies were just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 23-29 (.442) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Phillies are 21-18 (.538) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 846 strikeouts in 3,085 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .286 (3,085 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .606 (1,389 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
36% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Phillies are batting .269 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 10% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 16 of 105 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 49 of 422 batters (12%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies pitchers have walked 195 of 2,950 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers in 2022 — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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