- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The New York Mets (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Wednesday, June 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 34-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 36-38 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 68.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+11.90 Units / 96% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 41% ROI)
Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Tylor Megill | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+5.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.20 Units / 58% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+13.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games (+2.65 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 27-46 against the Run Line (-24.8 Units / -26.6% ROI).
- 34-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -20.11% ROI
- 33-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -12.45% ROI
- 39-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 3.23% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 36-38 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -4.72% ROI).
- 40-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.85 Units / -5.97% ROI
- 36-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -6.05% ROI
- 37-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -2.96% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .425 (17-for-40) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (210/383) of opposing batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (70/322) against Tylor Megill this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (120/232) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (19/92) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 12% (7/56) against Cristian Javier when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (149/557) against Cristian Javier since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (31/97) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are just 10-13 (.435) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
The Mets are just 2-6 (.250) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Mets are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Mets are 118-5 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Astros are 98-10 (.907) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Astros are 63-13 (.829) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 132-36 (.786) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 549 strikeouts in 2,742 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have just 1,240 strikeouts in 6,216 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting .183 with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 445 strikeouts in 2,562 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have just 825 strikeouts in 4,643 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.16 (1009.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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