Mets vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2023, 8:23 PM
  • The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Mets
  • Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
  • Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The New York Mets (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Wednesday, June 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Mets are 34-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 36-38 ATS.

Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

  Spread Over / Under Moneyline
Mets +1.5 -165 O 8.5 -105 +120
Astros -1.5 +140 U 8.5 -115 -145

Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 68.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Mets vs Astros and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

     

    • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.40 Units / 51% ROI)
    • Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+11.90 Units / 96% ROI)
    • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
    • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
    • Starling Marte has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)

     

      And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

      Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

         

        • Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI)
        • Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 61% ROI)
        • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
        • Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
        • Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 41% ROI)

         

          Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

          Over Under
          Starling Marte 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
          Tommy Pham 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
          Omar Narvaez 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
          Francisco Lindor 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
          Brett Baty 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

          Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

          Over Under
          Starling Marte 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
          Tommy Pham 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
          Omar Narvaez 0.5 -130 0.5 +100
          Francisco Lindor 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
          Brett Baty 0.5 -155 0.5 +120

          Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

          Over Under
          Starling Marte 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
          Tommy Pham 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
          Omar Narvaez 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
          Francisco Lindor 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
          Brett Baty 0.5 +195 0.5 -275

          Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

          Over Under
          Cristian Javier 4.5 -150 4.5 +115
          Tylor Megill 3.5 -165 3.5 +125

             

            • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+5.10 Units / 7% ROI)
            • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.20 Units / 58% ROI)

             

                 

                • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+13.60 Units / 21% ROI)
                • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
                • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)
                • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.00 Units / 13% ROI)
                • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games (+2.65 Units / 4% ROI)

                 

                  Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

                  Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 27-46 against the Run Line (-24.8 Units / -26.6% ROI).

                  • 34-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -20.11% ROI
                  • 33-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -12.45% ROI
                  • 39-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 3.23% ROI

                  Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

                  Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 36-38 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -4.72% ROI).

                  • 40-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.85 Units / -5.97% ROI
                  • 36-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -6.05% ROI
                  • 37-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -2.96% ROI

                  Opponents are hitting .425 (17-for-40) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.

                  Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (210/383) of opposing batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

                  Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (70/322) against Tylor Megill this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.

                  Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (120/232) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

                  Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

                  Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (19/92) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

                  Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 12% (7/56) against Cristian Javier when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.

                  Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (149/557) against Cristian Javier since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.

                  Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (31/97) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.

                  Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

                  The Mets are just 10-13 (.435) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.

                  The Mets are just 2-6 (.250) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.

                  The Mets are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.

                  The Mets are 118-5 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .909.

                  Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

                  The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.

                  The Astros are 98-10 (.907) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.

                  The Astros are 63-13 (.829) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

                  The Astros are 132-36 (.786) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

                  Mets hitters have just 549 strikeouts in 2,742 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

                  The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

                  Mets hitters have just 1,240 strikeouts in 6,216 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

                  The Mets are batting .183 with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .169.

                  Astros hitters have just 445 strikeouts in 2,562 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

                  The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

                  Astros hitters have just 825 strikeouts in 4,643 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

                  Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

                  Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

                  Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

                  Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

                  The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

                  The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

                  Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

                  Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

                  Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.16 (1009.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.

                  Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

                     

                    • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
                    • Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
                    • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
                    • Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
                    • José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15

                     

                         

                        • Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
                        • Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
                        • Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
                        • Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
                        • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
                        • Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
                        • José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60

                         


                          Bet now on Mets vs Astros and all games with BetMGM


                          Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

                          At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds, including NRFI odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

                          BetMGM first bet offer for $1000
                          About the Author

                          BetMGM Betting

                          Read More @BETMGM

                          Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

                          Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.