- The Astros (41-25) are -135 favorites vs the Mets (45-24)
- Mets starting pitcher: Trevor Williams (1-3), 3.53 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (5-3), 4.98 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The New York Mets (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 45-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 31-35 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -115 | +115 |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | U 9 -105 | -135 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 67.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Urquidy | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 40-29 against the Run Line (+13 Units / 15.81% ROI).
- 45-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.8 Units / 16.29% ROI
- 36-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 4.53% ROI
- 29-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -13.31% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 31-35 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -3.66% ROI).
- 41-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 3.57% ROI
- 21-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.25 Units / -33.61% ROI
- 42-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.85 Units / 25.75% ROI
Trevor Williams: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 0% (0/7) against Trevor Williams — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .515 (88 Total Bases / 171 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .298 — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 14% (7 SO in 50 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his changeup for a strike just 47% (58/122) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .341 (46/135) against Jose Urquidy when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .209 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .533 (16-for-30) against Jose Urquidy on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .332 — third Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to May 17th — Rony Garcia has the longest active streak at 7.
Hitters have swung at 69% of Jose Urquidy’s pitches (531/770) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are 24-10 (.706) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 33-4 (.892) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mets are 19-4 (.826) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 38-7 (.844) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Astros are 22-2 (.917) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Astros are 23-14 (.622) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Astros are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .278 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,826 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 508 strikeouts in 2,803 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 638 strikeouts in 3,463 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .184 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have walked 129 of 1,998 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.68 (262.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.0 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 400.0
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.04 (582.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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