Mets vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2022, 12:00 PM
  • The Astros (41-25) are -135 favorites vs the Mets (45-24)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Trevor Williams (1-3), 3.53 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (5-3), 4.98 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The New York Mets (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 45-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 31-35 ATS.

Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -165O 9 -115+115
Astros -1.5 +140U 9 -105-135

Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 67.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 away games (+8.35 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.35 Units / 123% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.50 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +500 0.5 -1200
    Alex Bregman 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
    Jose Altuve 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
    Jose Siri 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

    Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aledmys Diaz 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
    Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
    Jose Altuve 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Jose Siri 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

    Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
    Alex Bregman 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
    Jose Altuve 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
    Jose Siri 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

    Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Jose Urquidy 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 69 games (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 69 games (+9.77 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 64 games (+18.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 47 games (+1.60 Units / 3% ROI)
  • Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 40-29 against the Run Line (+13 Units / 15.81% ROI).

    • 45-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.8 Units / 16.29% ROI
    • 36-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 4.53% ROI
    • 29-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -13.31% ROI

    Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 31-35 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -3.66% ROI).

    • 41-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 3.57% ROI
    • 21-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.25 Units / -33.61% ROI
    • 42-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.85 Units / 25.75% ROI

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 0% (0/7) against Trevor Williams — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

    Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .515 (88 Total Bases / 171 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .298 — second Percentile.

    Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 14% (7 SO in 50 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.

    Trevor Williams has thrown his changeup for a strike just 47% (58/122) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

    José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .341 (46/135) against Jose Urquidy when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .209 — 0 Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .533 (16-for-30) against Jose Urquidy on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .332 — third Percentile.

    Jose Urquidy has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to May 17th — Rony Garcia has the longest active streak at 7.

    Hitters have swung at 69% of Jose Urquidy’s pitches (531/770) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.

    Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

    The Mets are 24-10 (.706) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

    The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Mets are 33-4 (.892) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

    The Mets are 19-4 (.826) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

    The Astros are 38-7 (.844) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

    The Astros are 22-2 (.917) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    The Astros are 23-14 (.622) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

    The Astros are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

    The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .278 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

    Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,826 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    Astros hitters have just 508 strikeouts in 2,803 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Astros hitters have just 638 strikeouts in 3,463 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .184 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.

    Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

    The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

    Mets pitchers have walked 129 of 1,998 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    The Astros have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.68 (262.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

    The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.0 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 400.0

    Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.04 (582.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

    Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jeremy Peña (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.