Mets vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2022, 10:32 AM
  • The Astros (41-25) are -135 favorites vs the Mets (45-24)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Trevor Williams (1-3), 3.53 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (5-3), 4.98 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The New York Mets (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Mets vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 45-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 31-35 ATS.

Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -165O 9 -115+115
Astros -1.5 +140U 9 -105-135

Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 67.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 away games (+8.35 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.35 Units / 123% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.50 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +500 0.5 -1200
    Alex Bregman 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
    Jose Altuve 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
    Jose Siri 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

    Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aledmys Diaz 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
    Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
    Jose Altuve 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Jose Siri 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

    Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
    Alex Bregman 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
    Jose Altuve 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
    Jose Siri 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

    Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Jose Urquidy 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 69 games (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 69 games (+9.77 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 64 games (+18.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 47 games (+1.60 Units / 3% ROI)
  • Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 40-29 against the Run Line (+13 Units / 15.81% ROI).

    • 45-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.8 Units / 16.29% ROI
    • 36-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 4.53% ROI
    • 29-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -13.31% ROI

    Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 31-35 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -3.66% ROI).

    • 41-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 3.57% ROI
    • 21-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.25 Units / -33.61% ROI
    • 42-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.85 Units / 25.75% ROI

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 0% (0/7) against Trevor Williams — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

    Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .515 (88 Total Bases / 171 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .298 — second Percentile.

    Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 14% (7 SO in 50 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.

    Trevor Williams has thrown his changeup for a strike just 47% (58/122) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

    José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .341 (46/135) against Jose Urquidy when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .209 — 0 Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .533 (16-for-30) against Jose Urquidy on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .332 — third Percentile.

    Jose Urquidy has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to May 17th — Rony Garcia has the longest active streak at 7.

    Hitters have swung at 69% of Jose Urquidy’s pitches (531/770) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.

    Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

    The Mets are 24-10 (.706) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

    The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Mets are 33-4 (.892) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

    The Mets are 19-4 (.826) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

    The Astros are 38-7 (.844) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

    The Astros are 22-2 (.917) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    The Astros are 23-14 (.622) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

    The Astros are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

    The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .278 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

    Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,826 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    Astros hitters have just 508 strikeouts in 2,803 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Astros hitters have just 638 strikeouts in 3,463 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .184 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.

    Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

    The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

    Mets pitchers have walked 129 of 1,998 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    The Astros have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.68 (262.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

    The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.0 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 400.0

    Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.04 (582.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

    Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jeremy Peña (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.