- The Mets (76-42) are -130 favorites vs the Braves (72-47)
- Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (2-0), 1.62 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (10-4), 2.60 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSO
The New York Mets (-130) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+110) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 76-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 62-57 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 7 -115 | -130 |
| Braves | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -105 | +110 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+17.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 36 of his last 57 away games (+14.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 46 away games (+12.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 away games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 62 of his last 107 games (+17.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+14.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 105 games (+12.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Jacob deGrom | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 118 games (+20.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 118 games (+16.42 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 118 games (+14.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+5.95 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 93 games (+19.17 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 69 games (+19.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 65-53 against the Run Line (+14.6 Units / 10.2% ROI).
- 76-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.3 Units / 11.29% ROI
- 60-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 2.71% ROI
- 51-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.45 Units / -11.19% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 62-57 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.29% ROI).
- 72-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.3% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.09% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.68% ROI
Jacob deGrom: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 45% (57/127) against Jacob deGrom this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 79% (22 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 50% (28 SO in 56 PAs) this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has not allowed a runner to reach base (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .228 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 51% (171/338) against Max Fried with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% (203/400) against Max Fried this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (74/134) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 89th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (147 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 36-23 (.610) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Mets are 56-5 (.918) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Mets are 66-3 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Mets are 35-5 (.875) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 63-14 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Braves are 9-2 (.818) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 61% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (518 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 64% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .674 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .557.
Braves hitters are slugging .506 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Braves are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
- Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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