Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 18, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (76-42) are -130 favorites vs the Braves (72-47)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (2-0), 1.62 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (10-4), 2.60 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The New York Mets (-130) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+110) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 76-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 62-57 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +135O 7 -115-130
Braves +1.5 -165U 7 -105+110

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+17.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 36 of his last 57 away games (+14.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 46 away games (+12.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 away games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 62 of his last 107 games (+17.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+14.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 105 games (+12.95 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Matt Olson 0.5 +325 0.5 -600
Michael Harris 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Matt Olson 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Michael Harris 0.5 -110 0.5 -125

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Matt Olson 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Michael Harris 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Fried 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Jacob deGrom 9.5 +110 9.5 -155
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 118 games (+20.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 118 games (+16.42 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 118 games (+14.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+5.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 93 games (+19.17 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 69 games (+19.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 65-53 against the Run Line (+14.6 Units / 10.2% ROI).

  • 76-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.3 Units / 11.29% ROI
  • 60-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 2.71% ROI
  • 51-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.45 Units / -11.19% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 62-57 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.29% ROI).

  • 72-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.3% ROI
  • 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.09% ROI
  • 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.68% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of 45% (57/127) against Jacob deGrom this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 79% (22 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 50% (28 SO in 56 PAs) this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has not allowed a runner to reach base (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .228 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a chase percentage of 51% (171/338) against Max Fried with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% (203/400) against Max Fried this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 88th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (74/134) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 89th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (147 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 36-23 (.610) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Mets are 56-5 (.918) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Mets are 66-3 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.

The Mets are 35-5 (.875) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 63-14 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Braves are 9-2 (.818) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 61% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (518 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 64% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Braves hitters are slugging .674 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .557.

Braves hitters are slugging .506 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

The Braves are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
  • Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.