Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 02, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Braves (99-59) are -135 favorites vs the Mets (98-60)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (15-8), 3.26 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (9-6), 4.29 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The New York Mets (+110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-135) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 98-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 82-76 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -185O 7.5 -105+110
Braves -1.5 +150U 7.5 -115-135

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 50 of his last 77 away games (+23.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 59 games (+23.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 76 games (+21.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 68 games (+19.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 58 away games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 78 of his last 108 games (+25.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 57 games at home (+20.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 83 of his last 146 games (+17.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 43 of his last 67 games (+15.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games at home (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Matt Olson 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Matt Olson 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Matt Olson 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charlie Morton 5.5 -140 5.5 -105
Chris Bassitt 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 120 games (+12.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 58 away games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 158 games (+8.85 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 158 games (+6.77 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 84 of their last 132 games (+27.97 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 108 games (+26.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+13.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games at home (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 84-74 against the Run Line (+8.85 Units / 4.49% ROI).

  • 98-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 1.1% ROI
  • 83-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +8 Units / 4.58% ROI
  • 68-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.1 Units / -13.31% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 82-76 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -1.64% ROI).

  • 99-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.4 Units / 4.97% ROI
  • 78-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -0.8% ROI
  • 72-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -7.83% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (90/506) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.5 MPH this season (502 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Chris Bassitt has averaged 71.6 MPH on curveballs since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 79.2 — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 26% (333/1,308) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.

Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (608/1,401) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 29 of 357 right-handed batters (8%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 73% (11/15) against Charlie Morton against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (2,158/5,811) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are just 10-26 (.278) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

The Mets are 85-3 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 33-8 (.805) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 35-5 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Braves are 58-11 (.841) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Braves are 45-33 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Mets are batting .500 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.

Mets hitters have just 31 strikeouts in 189 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Mets hitters have just 374 strikeouts in 1,892 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets have been successful on 60% of their hit & run attempts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Braves hitters are slugging .661 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Braves hitters are slugging .444 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .842 (1,184 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Braves hitters are slugging .626 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Max Fried (Braves): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Darin Ruf (Mets): Neck, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.