- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The New York Mets (+110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-135) on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Brewers Over/Under is 12 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 3-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 4-1 ATS.
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 12 -500 | +110 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | U 12 +375 | -135 |
Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 57.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.65 Units / 120% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
| David Peterson | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 91 of their last 171 games (+18.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 171 games (+10.40 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 91 of their last 171 games (+10.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 95 of their last 171 games (+7.59 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 105 of their last 171 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 164 games (+8.10 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 83 games at home (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 83 games at home (+7.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 83 games at home (+1.95 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 3-3 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 3.47% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -9.03% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -2.99% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -1.54% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 4-1 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 71.67% ROI).
- 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 51.3% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 11.11% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -21.36% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson had a strike rate of just 59% (875/1,491) against right-handed batters in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (11/16) against David Peterson this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 37% (116/317) against David Peterson on changeups since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 52% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .381 (8-for-21) against David Peterson this season — 12th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .250 — eighth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes located his fastball inside 71% of the time (168/236) in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (1,182/1,765) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes threw fastballs down 64% of the time (151/236) in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located 67% of his pitches down (1,150/1,719) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are 91-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 120-17 (.876) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 21-97 (.178) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Brewers are 67-52 (.563) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Brewers are 61-16 (.792) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Brewers are 10-58 (.147) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .178 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Mets hitters have just 399 strikeouts in 2,020 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .265 on the road in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .377 (167 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Brewers hitters have 819 strikeouts in 3,278 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 90 of 1,491 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D15
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D15
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D15
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