- The Padres (66-56) are -300 favorites vs the Nationals (41-80)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-8), 4.79 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-6), 2.97 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+240) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-300) on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 40-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 56-65 ATS.
Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -135 | O 7.5 -110 | +240 |
| Padres | -2.5 +110 | U 7.5 -110 | -300 |
Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+13.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 26 away games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.65 Units / 68% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.30 Units / 60% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 40 of his last 51 games (+17.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -160 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -165 |
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 63 of their last 108 games (+17.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.65 Units / 92% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 53 of their last 97 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 51-69 against the Run Line (-26.25 Units / -17.89% ROI).
- 40-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.1 Units / -16.17% ROI
- 60-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.35% ROI
- 53-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -9.37% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-65 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -8.14% ROI).
- 66-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.91% ROI
- 57-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -7.08% ROI
- 61-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.63% ROI
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .698 (37 Total Bases / 53 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .363 — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 56% (526/938) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strikeout rate of just 3% (2 SO in 76 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 49% (89/183) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove’s has 9 strikeouts and no walks — tied for best in MLB K:BB ratio over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.3 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .389 (14-for-36) against Joe Musgrove this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — second Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 1 of 158 batters (1%) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 25% (135/533) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — fourth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 19-44 (.302) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 105-24 (.814) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Nationals are just 67-107 (.385) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 41-67 (.380) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 54-19 (.740) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are 22-6 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Padres are 6-39 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Padres are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 342 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 271 double plays in 2,080 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 320 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters have 8 extra-base hits out of 35 total hits (just 23%) against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres hitters have drawn 68 walks in 547 PA’s (12%) against RHP this month (19 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.80 (486.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Padres pitchers have walked 65 of 1,090 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Padres have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Louis Voit (Nationals): Foot, Day-to-Day
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Luis García (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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