Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The (95-43) are favorites vs the (95-43)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (2-5), 4.55 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-11), 3.35 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Washington Nationals () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 48-89 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 69-67 ATS.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals O
Phillies U

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+24.05 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 39 away games (+19.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 31 games (+16.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 39 away games (+15.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 56 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 51 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Johan Camargo has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)

Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Bryce Harper 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Bryson Stott 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +375 0.5 -650

Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Bryce Harper 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Bryson Stott 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Bryce Harper 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Bryson Stott 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +125 0.5 -185

Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 7.5 +105 7.5 -150
Anibal Sanchez 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+10.35 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 78% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 79 of their last 134 games (+20.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+5.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 60-77 against the Run Line (-23.85 Units / -14.38% ROI).

  • 48-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.1 Units / -9.9% ROI
  • 68-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • 62-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -8.15% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 69-67 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.36% ROI).

  • 76-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 1.75% ROI
  • 69-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.7% ROI
  • 62-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -8.92% ROI

Anibal Sanchez has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.2 innings pitched — Brayan Bello has the longest active streak at 20.1.

Anibal Sanchez has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 41.1.

Anibal Sanchez has walked 5 of 45 batters (11%) — tied for 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.

Anibal Sanchez has walked 5 of 33 right-handed batters (15%) — tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has walked 24 of 698 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 71% (332/466) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.9 (103/8) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.9 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .162 (11-for-68) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 97th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 15-79 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 22-47 (.319) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Nationals are just 9-178 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Nationals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 63-20 (.759) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 284 double plays in 2,212 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .329 (5,871 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,569 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Phillies hitters are slugging .514 against RHP this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Phillies are batting .268 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .762 (2,707 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 72% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .252 against Nationals pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 171 of 2,659 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .260 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.