- The – (95-43) are favorites vs the – (95-43)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (2-5), 4.55 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-11), 3.35 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Washington Nationals () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 48-89 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 69-67 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+24.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 39 away games (+19.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 31 games (+16.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 39 away games (+15.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 56 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 51 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Johan Camargo has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -150 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+10.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 79 of their last 134 games (+20.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+5.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 60-77 against the Run Line (-23.85 Units / -14.38% ROI).
- 48-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.1 Units / -9.9% ROI
- 68-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 62-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -8.15% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 69-67 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.36% ROI).
- 76-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 1.75% ROI
- 69-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 62-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -8.92% ROI
Aníbal Sánchez: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Anibal Sanchez has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.2 innings pitched — Brayan Bello has the longest active streak at 20.1.
Anibal Sanchez has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 41.1.
Anibal Sanchez has walked 5 of 45 batters (11%) — tied for 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.
Anibal Sanchez has walked 5 of 33 right-handed batters (15%) — tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 24 of 698 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 71% (332/466) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.9 (103/8) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.9 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .162 (11-for-68) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 15-79 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 22-47 (.319) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 9-178 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 63-20 (.759) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have grounded into 284 double plays in 2,212 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .329 (5,871 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,569 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Phillies hitters are slugging .514 against RHP this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Phillies are batting .268 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .762 (2,707 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 72% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .252 against Nationals pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 171 of 2,659 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .260 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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