- After winning six straight NL East titles, the Braves are -275 to win the division.
- The Phillies are -105 to finish second behind the Braves in 2024.
The National League East hasn’t had much suspense in recent years, with the Atlanta Braves securing the last six division crowns.
Atlanta bested the Philadelphia Phillies, who finished second, by 14 games last year.
MLB odds expect another easy race for the Braves in 2024.
NL East Division Winner Odds
- Atlanta Braves -275
- Philadelphia Phillies +325
- New York Mets +1200
- Miami Marlins +2200
- Washington Nationals +10000
While the Braves have dominated this division recently, this is the first time they have been assigned minus odds to win the NL East in the preseason.
They were minus odds as early as May 1 last year after opening +100 to win the division.
Atlanta’s preseason NL East odds:
- 2023: +100
- 2022: +120
- 2021: +130
- 2020: +200
- 2019: +385
- 2018: +2550
NL East Win Totals & Projected Standings
| Team | FanGraphs | PECOTA | BetMGM Win Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 98.2-63.8 | 101.3-60.7 | 101.5 |
| Phillies | 85-77 | 84.2-77.8 | 89.5 |
| Mets | 80.9-81.1 | 83.5-78.5 | 81.5 |
| Marlins | 80.6-81.4 | 79.5-82.5 | 77.5 |
| Nationals | 64.8-97.2 | 58.1-103.9 | 66.5 |
There isn’t much drama about which team will win the NL East. MLB betting markets and projections also agree on the order of the rest of the division.
The Phillies are the clear No. 2 team following consecutive deep playoff runs. Their win total is a few games higher than their projection at FanGraphs and PECOTA.
Miami and New York will battle it out for third in the NL East, though both teams are projected to hover around .500 at best. The Marlins were 33-14 in one-run games during last year’s postseason bid, while the Mets continue to underwhelm despite having one of the highest payrolls in baseball.
The Nationals are in the mix to finish with the worst record in the majors.
NL East Betting Prediction
Prediction: Braves 1st/Phillies 2nd exact outcome of NL East (-105)
Atlanta is the class of the division and enters the year as the top team in baseball via my best MLB power rankings. The Phillies should place second and notch another postseason berth, though replicating their success from the last two years might be difficult.
Rather than bet -210 odds on those two teams to finish in the top two in any order, I’m taking the -105 value on the Braves and Phillies to end up in that exact order for the second straight season.
Let the Marlins and Mets battle for third place. The top of this division should be pretty straightforward in 2024.
NL East Team Previews & Predictions
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is the best team in baseball entering 2024, and Ronald Acuña Jr. could follow up his MVP season by hitting more home runs this year.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia finished one win shy of a second straight National League pennant last season, but still remain behind Atlanta in its own division.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are due for some regression after winning 84 games and making the postseason in 2023. How far will they fall this season?
New York Mets
The Mets are one of the more popular MLB betting picks to miss the playoffs for a reason entering the 2024 campaign.
Washington Nationals
Washington offers solid value to finish with the fewest wins in Major League Baseball, as the franchise focuses on its future outlook.
2024 MLB Division Previews & Predictions
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