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Orioles vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 28, 2022, 9:54 AM
  • The Astros (81-47) are -250 favorites vs the Orioles (67-59)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Austin Voth (4-1), 4.72 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (16-3), 1.87 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Baltimore Orioles (+190) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Orioles vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 67-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 64-61 ATS.

Orioles vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -115O 7 -115+190
Astros -1.5 -105U 7 -105-250

Orioles vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jorge Mateo has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.25 Units / 19% ROI)
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    Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 60 games at home (+15.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.70 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+12.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+9.40 Units / 14% ROI)
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    Astros vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alex Bregman 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
    Jeremy Pena 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
    Jose Altuve 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
    Martin Maldonado 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200

    Astros vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alex Bregman 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
    Jeremy Pena 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
    Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
    Martin Maldonado 0.5 -110 0.5 -130

    Astros vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alex Bregman 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
    Jeremy Pena 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
    Jose Altuve 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
    Kyle Tucker 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
    Martin Maldonado 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

    Astros vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Justin Verlander 6.5 -120 6.5 -115
    Austin Voth 3.5 -155 3.5 +110
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 36 away games (+16.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+15.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 away games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+8.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 away games (+5.30 Units / 15% ROI)
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  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 115 games (+27.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 72 games (+9.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+4.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
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    Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 83-42 against the Run Line (+33.05 Units / 19.92% ROI).

    • 67-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.9 Units / 22.71% ROI
    • 57-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -8.04% ROI
    • 63-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.32% ROI

    Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 64-61 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 2.75% ROI).

    • 79-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 1.95% ROI
    • 45-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.9 Units / -24.79% ROI
    • 73-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +23.25 Units / 16.77% ROI

    Opponents are hitting .407 (37-for-91) against Austin Voth versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .217 (65-for-299) against Austin Voth with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .157 — second Percentile.

    Austin Voth has allowed a slugging percentage of .615 (56 Total Bases / 91 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .355 — 0 Percentile.

    Austin Voth has allowed an OPS of 1.047 (95 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .640 — 0 Percentile.

    Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .228 (569 PA’s) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.

    Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .170 (330 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 96th Percentile.

    Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .510 (570 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 100th Percentile.

    Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .203 (29 Total Bases / 143 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .360 — 100th Percentile.

    Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

    The Orioles are 7-51 (.121) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

    The Orioles are 37-24 (.607) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

    The Orioles are 52-2 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

    The Orioles are 50-1 (.980) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

    Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

    The Astros are 70-18 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

    The Astros are 11-5 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Astros are 51-3 (.944) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

    The Astros are 66-5 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

    Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

    The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 41% since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    The Orioles are batting just .109 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

    Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (5,879 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

    Astros hitters have just 628 strikeouts in 3,488 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Astros hitters have just 248 strikeouts in 1,407 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Astros hitters have just 758 strikeouts in 4,148 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

    Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (1162.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

    Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

    Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

    Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.81 (560.2 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.

    Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Astros vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Chas McCormick (Astros): Finger, Day-to-Day
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Thomas Pressly (Astros): Neck, D15
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
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  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
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    About the Author

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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