Orioles vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 31

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 31, 2022, 11:30 AM
  • The Guardians (68-59) are -175 favorites vs the Orioles (67-61)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (9-9), 4.44 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (9-10), 3.16 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Baltimore Orioles (+145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-175) on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Orioles vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 67-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-58 ATS.

Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -140O 8 -105+145
Guardians -1.5 +115U 8 -115-175

Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+17.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+13.50 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+13.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 47 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Amed Rosario 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
    Andres Gimenez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
    Jose Ramirez 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
    Josh Naylor 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
    Luke Maile 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

    Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Amed Rosario 1.5 +150 1.5 -225
    Andres Gimenez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
    Jose Ramirez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
    Josh Naylor 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
    Luke Maile 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

    Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Amed Rosario 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
    Andres Gimenez 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
    Jose Ramirez 0.5 +115 0.5 -165
    Josh Naylor 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
    Luke Maile 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

    Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Triston McKenzie 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
    Jordan Lyles 3.5 +115 3.5 -160
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 66 games (+16.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 38 away games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 away games (+12.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 87 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 83-44 against the Run Line (+30.35 Units / 18% ROI).

    • 67-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +27.9 Units / 20.88% ROI
    • 57-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.15 Units / -9.46% ROI
    • 65-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 1.73% ROI

    Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 68-58 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 3.32% ROI).

    • 68-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 7.66% ROI
    • 55-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -9.38% ROI
    • 62-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 1.15% ROI

    Opponents are hitting .247 (74-for-300) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .159 — third Percentile.

    Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .410 (123 Total Bases / 300 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.

    Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .717 (329 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .469 — first Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .323 (21-for-65) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 — first Percentile.

    Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Triston McKenzie has a strikeout rate of 47% (76 SO in 160 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 94th Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting just .132 (38-for-287) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .159 — 83rd Percentile.

    Opponents had a groundball rate of just 18% (3/17) against Triston McKenzie — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (7/29) against Triston McKenzie — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.

    Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

    The Orioles are 50-1 (.980) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

    The Orioles are 22-4 (.846) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

    The Orioles are 52-2 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

    The Orioles are 37-24 (.607) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

    Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

    The Guardians are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

    The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

    The Guardians are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

    The Guardians are 12-48 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

    Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

    Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

    Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

    Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .467 (2,565 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.

    Guardians hitters have just 625 strikeouts in 3,557 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Guardians hitters have just 884 strikeouts in 4,790 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,023 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

    Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

    Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

    Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (1162.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

    Orioles pitchers have walked 342 of 4,782 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 1.93 (107.0 IP) on the road this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.

    Guardians pitchers have walked 70 of 1,130 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

    Guardians pitchers have walked 9 of 236 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (26 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

    The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

    Guardians vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.