- The Rangers (46-55) are -165 favorites vs the Orioles (51-51)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Spenser Watkins (3-1), 4.03 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (7-5), 3.61 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Baltimore Orioles (+140) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-165) on Monday, August 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Rangers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 51-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 59-42 ATS.
Orioles vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 +100 | +140 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -120 | -165 |
Orioles vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Monday‘s matchup with 69.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+16.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+13.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games at home (+18.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+15.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 62 games (+13.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.25 Units / 68% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 44 games (+12.25 Units / 28% ROI)
Rangers vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Elier Hernandez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Rangers vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Elier Hernandez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
Rangers vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Elier Hernandez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Rangers vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gray | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +110 |
| Spenser Watkins | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 82 games (+24.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 82 games (+21.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+10.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+8.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 64 games (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 90 games (+20.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 62 games (+9.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 66-36 against the Run Line (+22.85 Units / 17.05% ROI).
- 51-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.35 Units / 16.32% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -8.64% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 1.23% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 59-42 against the Run Line (+12.55 Units / 9.43% ROI).
- 46-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -6.57% ROI
- 47-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.6% ROI
- 46-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -4.71% ROI
Spenser Watkins: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (35/112) against Spenser Watkins this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Spenser Watkins this season is 415.8 feet — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 398.0
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 62% (13/21) against Spenser Watkins — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — third Percentile.
Spenser Watkins has allowed a slugging percentage of just .225 (9 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .376 — 89th Percentile.
Jonathan Gray: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Gray allowed a batting average of just .107 vs right-handed batters (second best)– 98th Percentile and .353 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 10th Percentile.
Jon Gray has a strikeout rate of just 4% (3 SO in 72 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — first Percentile.
Jon Gray has a first-pitch strike rate of 80% (41/51) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Jon Gray has a strikeout rate of 47% (113 SO in 239 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 85th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Orioles are 29-20 (.592) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Orioles are just 22-31 (.415) on the road this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Orioles are 39-2 (.951) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Orioles are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rangers are just 35-8 (.814) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Rangers are 6-41 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Rangers are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 13-44 (.228) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Orioles have won just 58% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Orioles hitters have 308 strikeouts in 1,214 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 35% on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,953 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .687 (2,953 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .301 (4,636 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .997 (231 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.91 (1058.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 81 of 892 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rangers vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Corey Seager (Rangers): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Neck, D10
- Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Blister, D15
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
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