Orioles vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Rays (50-40) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (45-45)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (3-1), 2.15 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough (0-4), 5.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Orioles vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 45-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 42-48 ATS.

Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -190O 8 -115+105
Rays -1.5 +155U 8 -105-125

Orioles vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+18.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+13.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Shane McClanahan has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Shane McClanahan has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.25 Units / 68% ROI)

Rays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Josh Lowe 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Taylor Walls 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Rays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Harold Ramirez 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Josh Lowe 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Randy Arozarena 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Taylor Walls 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Rays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Josh Lowe 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Taylor Walls 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Rays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Dean Kremer 4.5 -105 4.5 -140
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 70 games (+22.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 70 games (+20.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+15.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+12.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games at home (+4.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+4.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+3.70 Units / 5% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 58-32 against the Run Line (+20.45 Units / 17.52% ROI).

  • 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.9 Units / 17.03% ROI
  • 39-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -11.43% ROI
  • 47-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 4.22% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 42-48 against the Run Line (-6.25 Units / -5.61% ROI).

  • 50-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -1.43% ROI
  • 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -7.37% ROI
  • 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.45% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (5/27) against Dean Kremer this month (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.

Dean Kremer has allowed an OBP of .407 (27 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .304 (7-for-23) against Dean Kremer with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .164 — second Percentile.

Dean Kremer has walked 4 of 26 left-handed batters (15%) this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — ninth Percentile.

Ryan Yarbrough: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ryan Yarbrough has averaged 71.1 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — first Percentile.

Ryan Yarbrough has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.8 MPH on the road since the start of last season (341 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 88.8

Ryan Yarbrough has an average fastball velocity of just 86.4 MPH since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 93.2 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 17% (19/109) against Ryan Yarbrough on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Orioles are 25-17 (.595) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Orioles are just 20-28 (.417) on the road this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Orioles are 36-2 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Orioles are just 22-72 (.234) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Rays are 31-6 (.838) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Rays are 21-5 (.808) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Rays are 30-17 (.638) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Rays are 82-14 (.854) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .299 (2,319 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .298 (6,231 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 42% at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 39% since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 314 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays hitters have grounded into 123 double plays in 1,680 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Rays hitters have 729 strikeouts in 3,025 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.09 (975.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 49 of 798 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rays pitchers have walked 137 of 2,268 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 663 of 9,309 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 44 of 806 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Rays vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Leg, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.