- The Rays (50-40) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (45-45)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (3-1), 2.15 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough (0-4), 5.82 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Orioles vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 45-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 42-48 ATS.
Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -125 |
Orioles vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+18.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+13.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.25 Units / 68% ROI)
Rays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Rays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Rays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 70 games (+22.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 70 games (+20.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+15.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+12.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games at home (+4.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+4.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+3.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 58-32 against the Run Line (+20.45 Units / 17.52% ROI).
- 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.9 Units / 17.03% ROI
- 39-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -11.43% ROI
- 47-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 4.22% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 42-48 against the Run Line (-6.25 Units / -5.61% ROI).
- 50-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -1.43% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -7.37% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.45% ROI
Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (5/27) against Dean Kremer this month (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed an OBP of .407 (27 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .304 (7-for-23) against Dean Kremer with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .164 — second Percentile.
Dean Kremer has walked 4 of 26 left-handed batters (15%) this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — ninth Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Yarbrough has averaged 71.1 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — first Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.8 MPH on the road since the start of last season (341 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 88.8
Ryan Yarbrough has an average fastball velocity of just 86.4 MPH since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 93.2 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 17% (19/109) against Ryan Yarbrough on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Orioles are 25-17 (.595) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Orioles are just 20-28 (.417) on the road this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Orioles are 36-2 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Orioles are just 22-72 (.234) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rays are 31-6 (.838) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Rays are 21-5 (.808) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Rays are 30-17 (.638) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Rays are 82-14 (.854) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .299 (2,319 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .298 (6,231 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 42% at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 39% since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 314 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 123 double plays in 1,680 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays hitters have 729 strikeouts in 3,025 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.09 (975.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 49 of 798 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 137 of 2,268 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 663 of 9,309 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 44 of 806 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Leg, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
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