Orioles vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 01, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Twins (43-36) are -225 favorites vs the Orioles (35-42)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Spenser Watkins (1-1), 5.14 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (6-3), 3.20 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Baltimore Orioles (+180) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 35-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-43 ATS.

Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -105O 9.5 -120+180
Twins -1.5 -115U 9.5 +100-225

Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s matchup with 56.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+17.15 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+7.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.25 Units / 34% ROI)

Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Byron Buxton 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Carlos Correa 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Gio Urshela 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100

Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Byron Buxton 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Carlos Correa 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Gio Urshela 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Byron Buxton 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Carlos Correa 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Gio Urshela 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Ryan 5.5 +110 5.5 -160
Spenser Watkins 2.5 -165 2.5 +120
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 57 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 57 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+12.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+8.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 67 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 48-29 against the Run Line (+12.6 Units / 12.77% ROI).

  • 35-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 10.31% ROI
  • 34-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -10.69% ROI
  • 40-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 3.08% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 36-43 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -8.71% ROI).

  • 43-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 2.92% ROI
  • 36-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -6.06% ROI
  • 38-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -2.11% ROI

Spenser Watkins has not struck out a hitter in his last 32 PAs against a LHH dating back to April 30th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (12/106) against Joe Ryan with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of .468 (29 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .305 — fourth Percentile.

Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of just .192 (10 Total Bases / 52 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .115 (6-for-52) against Joe Ryan’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 97th Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Orioles are just 8-24 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 26-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Orioles are just 21-71 (.228) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.

The Orioles are 11-3 (.786) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .678.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Twins are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 38-12 (.760) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Twins are just 39-6 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Twins are 23-17 (.575) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 36% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Orioles have won just 57% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .370 on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

The Twins are batting .255 with two outs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Twins hitters are slugging .426 against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .749 (2,127 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

Twins hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.10 (967.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Twins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Oblique, D10
  • Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.