Orioles vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Twins (45-36) are -155 favorites vs the Orioles (35-44)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells (6-4), 3.23 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer (4-1), 2.86 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Baltimore Orioles (+130) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-155) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 35-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-45 ATS.

Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -150O 9 -120+130
Twins -1.5 +125U 9 +100-155

Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jorge Mateo has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+20.10 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.25 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+5.55 Units / 62% ROI)

Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Carlos Correa 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Carlos Correa 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jorge Polanco 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Carlos Correa 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Devin Smeltzer 3.5 -120 3.5 -115
Tyler Wells 3.5 +100 3.5 -145
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 59 games (+16.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 59 games (+10.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+9.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 50-29 against the Run Line (+14.65 Units / 14.56% ROI).

  • 35-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 7.6% ROI
  • 34-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -12.82% ROI
  • 42-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 5.26% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 36-45 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -11.06% ROI).

  • 45-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 4.59% ROI
  • 36-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.3 Units / -8.23% ROI
  • 40-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.17% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .161 (10-for-62) against Tyler Wells on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .143 (5-for-35) against Tyler Wells on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 100th Percentile.

Tyler Wells has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 21 innings — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Tyler Wells has allowed an OBP of just .200 (125 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .302 — 100th Percentile.

Devin Smeltzer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (17/124) against Devin Smeltzer this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Devin Smeltzer has not walked any of the 43 batters that he has faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (25/153) against Devin Smeltzer this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (6/25) against Devin Smeltzer — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Orioles are just 8-25 (.242) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Orioles are just 34-34 (.500) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Twins are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 31-5 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Twins are 40-12 (.769) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Twins are 4-24 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .296 (5,984 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.

The Orioles have won just 52% of games in which they have scored first at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Orioles are batting just .214 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.

Twins hitters have just 36 strikeouts in 237 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins hitters have 38 extra-base hits out of 77 total hits (49%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Twins hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

The Twins have an average HR distance of 405.9 feet since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9.

Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.10 (967.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, Day-to-Day
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Oblique, D10
  • Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.