- The Mets are -140 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Watch the game on SNY
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-140) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 6-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 7-4 ATS.
Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -115 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -105 | -140 |
Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+1.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 110% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Ryan Weathers | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +130 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 66% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.37 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.66% ROI).
- 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -8.36% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 2.8% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -11.91% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 7-4 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 34.11% ROI).
- 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.35% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 4.1% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -12.5% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 53% of the time (17/32) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has induced opposing hitters to ground into 1 double play in 3 opportunities (33%) this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (28/72) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has located his pitches away 58% of the time (52/90) this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 33% (10/30) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (203/398) of opposing batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 59% (949/1,617) against right-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson had a strike rate of just 59% (875/1,491) against right-handed batters in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are just 15-124 (.108) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Padres were 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres were 70-7 (.909) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Padres were just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets were 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Mets are 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are 94-3 (.969) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have 34 strikeouts in 99 PA’s (34%) against right-handed relievers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have 6 extra-base hits out of 9 total hits (67%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .677 (3,169 PA’s) at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Padres are batting just .243 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .344.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,528 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Mets batted .265 on the road in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .147 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Padres pitchers won 39% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
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