- The Mets (58-37) are -130 favorites vs the Padres (54-42)
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-2), 2.42 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (10-4), 4.27 ERA
- Watch the game on ESPN
The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-130) on Sunday, July 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 54-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-46 ATS.
Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -130 |
Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 45 away games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 33 away games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games at home (+17.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 29 games at home (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Vogelbach | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Vogelbach | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Vogelbach | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +105 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 71 games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 away games (+4.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 95 games (+3.60 Units / 3% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+11.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+9.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 57 games (+5.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+3.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 46-50 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -3.71% ROI).
- 54-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.66% ROI
- 42-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -13.94% ROI
- 52-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 5.14% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.41% ROI).
- 58-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 8.65% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.62% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -8.71% ROI
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .121 (4-for-33) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .182 (6 Total Bases / 33 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .565 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .174 (35-for-201) against Joe Musgrove’s non-fastballs this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 84th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 30% (84/279) against Joe Musgrove this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 89th Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .412 (21-for-51) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — second Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.020 (52 Total Bases / 51 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .575 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.655 (63 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.022 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .765 (39 Total Bases / 51 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .422 — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 29-21 (.580) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Padres are 45-12 (.789) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are 15-4 (.789) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are 24-4 (.857) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Mets are 24-12 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 26-7 (.788) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .660.
The Mets are 49-3 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have drawn 273 walks in 2,838 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,673 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Padres are batting just .235 at home since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .270 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have 195 extra-base hits out of 629 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .376 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Padres pitchers have walked 52 of 863 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Paul Abrams (Padres): Biceps, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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