Padres vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 24

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 24, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (58-37) are -130 favorites vs the Padres (54-42)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-2), 2.42 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (10-4), 4.27 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-130) on Sunday, July 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 54-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-46 ATS.

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -190O 8 -115+105
Mets -1.5 +155U 8 -105-130

Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 45 away games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.20 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 33 away games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games at home (+17.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 29 games at home (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.20 Units / 31% ROI)

Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Vogelbach 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Vogelbach 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Vogelbach 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 -145 4.5 +105
Joe Musgrove 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 71 games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 away games (+4.25 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 95 games (+3.60 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+11.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+9.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 57 games (+5.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+3.95 Units / 10% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 46-50 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -3.71% ROI).

  • 54-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.66% ROI
  • 42-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -13.94% ROI
  • 52-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 5.14% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.41% ROI).

  • 58-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 8.65% ROI
  • 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.62% ROI
  • 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -8.71% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .121 (4-for-33) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 100th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .182 (6 Total Bases / 33 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .565 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .174 (35-for-201) against Joe Musgrove’s non-fastballs this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 84th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 30% (84/279) against Joe Musgrove this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 89th Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .412 (21-for-51) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — second Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.020 (52 Total Bases / 51 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .575 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.655 (63 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.022 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .765 (39 Total Bases / 51 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .422 — second Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 29-21 (.580) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Padres are 45-12 (.789) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Padres are 15-4 (.789) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mets are 24-4 (.857) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Mets are 24-12 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 26-7 (.788) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .660.

The Mets are 49-3 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Padres hitters have drawn 273 walks in 2,838 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,673 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Padres are batting just .235 at home since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .270 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have 195 extra-base hits out of 629 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .376 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Padres pitchers have walked 52 of 863 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Abrams (Padres): Biceps, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.