Padres vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 12

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (63-51) are -275 favorites vs the Nationals (37-76)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (3-4), 3.60 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-1), 5.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The San Diego Padres (-275) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+220) on Friday, August 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Padres vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 63-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 47-66 ATS.

Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-2.5 -105O 9 -120-275
Nationals +2.5 -115U 9 +100+220

Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 37 away games (+18.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+13.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.10 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 42 games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 43 games (+10.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+8.45 Units / 30% ROI)

Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +1000 0.5
Joey Meneses 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Lane Thomas 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Joey Meneses 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Lane Thomas 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Luis Garcia 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Joey Meneses 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Lane Thomas 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mike Clevinger 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 89 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 away games (+3.65 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 away games (+2.45 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 100 games (+20.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+2.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 53-61 against the Run Line (-9.95 Units / -7.11% ROI).

  • 63-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.2% ROI
  • 54-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -6.5% ROI
  • 57-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -2.29% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 47-66 against the Run Line (-28.1 Units / -20.24% ROI).

  • 37-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.9 Units / -19.52% ROI
  • 56-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.84% ROI
  • 50-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -8.79% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 11% (3/27) against Mike Clevinger — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (6/38) against Mike Clevinger — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (6/38) against Mike Clevinger this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 11% (3/27) against Mike Clevinger this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Cory Abbott has walked 7 of 43 batters (16%) this month (2 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Cory Abbott has allowed an OBP of .409 (22 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.

Cory Abbott has allowed a slugging percentage of .773 (17 Total Bases / 22 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .388 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (8/29) against Cory Abbott this month (2 games) — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Padres are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Padres are 30-27 (.526) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Nationals are just 37-64 (.366) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 11-69 (.138) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 20-36 (.357) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Padres are batting just .130 on the road over the last 14 days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 265 double plays in 2,022 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .340 (3,159 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 107 double plays in 784 opportunities (14%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Padres pitchers have walked 19 of 413 batters (5%) this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.3

The Padres have won 44% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .311 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (985.0 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.81 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .275 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.