- The Padres (63-51) are -275 favorites vs the Nationals (37-76)
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (3-4), 3.60 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-1), 5.68 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The San Diego Padres (-275) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+220) on Friday, August 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Padres vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 63-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 47-66 ATS.
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -2.5 -105 | O 9 -120 | -275 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -115 | U 9 +100 | +220 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 37 away games (+18.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+13.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 42 games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 43 games (+10.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+8.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Clevinger | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 89 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 away games (+3.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 away games (+2.45 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 100 games (+20.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+2.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 53-61 against the Run Line (-9.95 Units / -7.11% ROI).
- 63-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.2% ROI
- 54-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -6.5% ROI
- 57-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -2.29% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 47-66 against the Run Line (-28.1 Units / -20.24% ROI).
- 37-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.9 Units / -19.52% ROI
- 56-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.84% ROI
- 50-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -8.79% ROI
Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 11% (3/27) against Mike Clevinger — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (6/38) against Mike Clevinger — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (6/38) against Mike Clevinger this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 11% (3/27) against Mike Clevinger this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cory Abbott has walked 7 of 43 batters (16%) this month (2 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Cory Abbott has allowed an OBP of .409 (22 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Cory Abbott has allowed a slugging percentage of .773 (17 Total Bases / 22 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .388 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (8/29) against Cory Abbott this month (2 games) — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Padres are 30-27 (.526) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 37-64 (.366) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 11-69 (.138) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 20-36 (.357) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .130 on the road over the last 14 days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have grounded into 265 double plays in 2,022 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .340 (3,159 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 107 double plays in 784 opportunities (14%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 19 of 413 batters (5%) this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.3
The Padres have won 44% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .311 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (985.0 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.81 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .275 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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