Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros are -165 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 3.11 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, 6.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies (+140) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-165) on Friday, October 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Houston for this World Series game.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 96-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 90-79 ATS.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -160O 6.5 +100+140
Astros -1.5 +135U 6.5 -120-165

Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s World Series Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s World Series matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Astros vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today, World Series

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 52 away games (+20.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 36 games (+17.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 52 away games (+13.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 37 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 45 away games (+12.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 47 of his last 83 games at home (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games at home (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 30 games at home (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)

Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Chas McCormick 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Jose Altuve 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000

Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Chas McCormick 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jose Altuve 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Chas McCormick 0.5 +300 0.5 -550
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Jose Altuve 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Verlander 5.5 -160 5.5 +115
Aaron Nola 5.5 -115 5.5 -125
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 57 away games (+22.08 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 123 games (+17.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 122 games (+9.85 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.43 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 away games (+8.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 156 games (+30.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 167 games (+28.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 106 of their last 153 games (+27.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 150 games (+17.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games at home (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 90-83 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 1.14% ROI).

  • 96-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 1.92% ROI
  • 88-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 0.71% ROI
  • 79-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -8.75% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 90-79 against the Run Line (+12.65 Units / 6.32% ROI).

  • 113-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.6 Units / 7.64% ROI
  • 62-97 when betting on the total runs Over for -43.45 Units / -23.45% ROI
  • 97-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.2 Units / 15.07% ROI

Aaron Nola has walked 30 of 832 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 8.0 (241/30) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (2 games) — tied for most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .235 (238 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Phillies hitters are slugging .237 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.