- The Astros are -165 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 3.11 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, 6.30 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (+140) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-165) on Friday, October 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Houston for this World Series game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 96-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 90-79 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -160 | O 6.5 +100 | +140 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 6.5 -120 | -165 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s World Series Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s World Series matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today, World Series
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 52 away games (+20.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 36 games (+17.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 52 away games (+13.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 37 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 45 away games (+12.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 47 of his last 83 games at home (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games at home (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 30 games at home (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 57 away games (+22.08 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 123 games (+17.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 122 games (+9.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.43 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 away games (+8.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 156 games (+30.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 167 games (+28.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 106 of their last 153 games (+27.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 150 games (+17.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games at home (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 90-83 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 1.14% ROI).
- 96-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 1.92% ROI
- 88-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 0.71% ROI
- 79-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -8.75% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 90-79 against the Run Line (+12.65 Units / 6.32% ROI).
- 113-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.6 Units / 7.64% ROI
- 62-97 when betting on the total runs Over for -43.45 Units / -23.45% ROI
- 97-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.2 Units / 15.07% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 30 of 832 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 8.0 (241/30) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (2 games) — tied for most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .235 (238 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters are slugging .237 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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