Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Phillies (46-39) are +100 favorites vs the Cardinals (45-42)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Nicholas Nelson (3-1), 4.17 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Neil Pallante (2-4), 3.03 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-120) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 46-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 46-41 ATS.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +155O 8.5 -115+100
Cardinals +1.5 -190U 8.5 -105-120

Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)

Cardinals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Austin Romine 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Juan Yepez 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Tommy Edman 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500

Cardinals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Austin Romine 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Juan Yepez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Nolan Arenado 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Tommy Edman 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Cardinals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Austin Romine 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Juan Yepez 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Tommy Edman 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Cardinals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andre Pallante 3.5 -115 3.5 -120
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+6.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+3.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 64 games (+3.20 Units / 5% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 44-41 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.65% ROI).

  • 46-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.74% ROI
  • 45-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 3.53% ROI
  • 38-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -12.24% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 46-41 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 1.02% ROI).

  • 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -3.29% ROI
  • 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -8.22% ROI
  • 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -0.89% ROI

Nick Nelson has a strike rate of just 57% (198/345) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 12% (5/41) against Nick Nelson with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (16/107) against Nick Nelson with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (12/57) against Nick Nelson’s fastball this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Neil Pallante: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (120/192) against Andre Pallante this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 11% (11/104) against Andre Pallante with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (80/124) against Andre Pallante in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.

Andre Pallante has a strikeout rate of just 7% (4 SO in 61 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 0 Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-29 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .111.

The Phillies are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Cardinals are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Cardinals are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .111.

The Cardinals are just 12-35 (.255) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Cardinals are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (952 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Phillies hitters are slugging .416 on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cardinals hitters have 191 extra-base hits out of 443 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .457 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Cardinals hitters have 218 extra-base hits out of 515 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Cardinals are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (5,964 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 85 double plays in 645 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 78 of 771 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 206 of 2,190 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Johan Oviedo (Cardinals): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.