- The Phillies (46-39) are +100 favorites vs the Cardinals (45-42)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Nicholas Nelson (3-1), 4.17 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Neil Pallante (2-4), 3.03 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-120) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 46-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 46-41 ATS.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 84% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Cardinals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Cardinals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+6.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+3.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 64 games (+3.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 44-41 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.65% ROI).
- 46-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 45-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 3.53% ROI
- 38-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -12.24% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 46-41 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 1.02% ROI).
- 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -3.29% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -8.22% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -0.89% ROI
Nicholas Nelson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Nelson has a strike rate of just 57% (198/345) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 12% (5/41) against Nick Nelson with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (16/107) against Nick Nelson with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (12/57) against Nick Nelson’s fastball this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Neil Pallante: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (120/192) against Andre Pallante this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 11% (11/104) against Andre Pallante with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (80/124) against Andre Pallante in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Andre Pallante has a strikeout rate of just 7% (4 SO in 61 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-29 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .111.
The Phillies are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cardinals are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Cardinals are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .111.
The Cardinals are just 12-35 (.255) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Cardinals are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (952 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Phillies hitters are slugging .416 on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 191 extra-base hits out of 443 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .457 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Cardinals hitters have 218 extra-base hits out of 515 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Cardinals are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (5,964 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 85 double plays in 645 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 78 of 771 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 206 of 2,190 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Johan Oviedo (Cardinals): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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