Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cardinals (45-41) are -125 favorites vs the Phillies (45-39)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (4-3), 4.90 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Dakota Hudson (6-5), 4.28 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-125) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 45-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 46-40 ATS.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -190O 9 -115+105
Cardinals -1.5 +155U 9 -105-125

Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.90 Units / 61% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Dylan Carlson has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)

Cardinals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Conner Capel 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Juan Yepez 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Nolan Gorman 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Cardinals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Conner Capel 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Juan Yepez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Nolan Arenado 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Nolan Gorman 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Cardinals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Conner Capel 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Juan Yepez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Nolan Gorman 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Cardinals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Gibson 3.5 -140 3.5 -105
Dakota Hudson 3.5 +130 3.5 -185
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+11.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games (+11.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+7.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+4.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 63 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 1.72% ROI).

  • 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -1.67% ROI
  • 45-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 4.64% ROI
  • 37-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -13.48% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 46-40 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 1.92% ROI).

  • 45-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -2.2% ROI
  • 40-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -7.25% ROI
  • 42-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.96% ROI

Kyle Gibson has struck out just 14% (23/170) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — sixth Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .284 (50-for-176) against Kyle Gibson this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 13th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .339 (19-for-56) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has allowed an OPS of .789 (189 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .682 — 13th Percentile.

Dakota Hudson: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 56% (377/678) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (79/124) against Dakota Hudson this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 59% (210/358) when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 70% — first Percentile.

Dakota Hudson has a strikeout rate of just 13% (46 SO in 354 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.

The Phillies are 8-29 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Phillies are 21-18 (.538) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Cardinals are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Cardinals are 18-5 (.783) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Cardinals are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Cardinals are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.

Phillies hitters are slugging .510 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .334 (948 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Phillies hitters are slugging .421 on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Cardinals hitters have 191 extra-base hits out of 443 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .458 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Cardinals hitters have 218 extra-base hits out of 515 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Cardinals are batting .265 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 142 of 2,175 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 733 times this season — 4th fewest in MLB.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 77 of 762 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 85 double plays in 637 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 205 of 2,181 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Johan Oviedo (Cardinals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.