- The Phillies (48-43) are -140 favorites vs the Marlins (43-47)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (5-7), 3.34 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (4-8), 5.42 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 48-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-47 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 7 -115 | -140 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | U 7 -105 | +115 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 63.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+14.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 away games (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 games at home (+17.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 41 games at home (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +105 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+12.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 46 away games (+10.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games (+4.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games at home (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 48-43 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 4.8% ROI).
- 48-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -2.14% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 0.95% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.6 Units / -9.59% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 43-47 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -7.71% ROI).
- 43-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.1 Units / -7.39% ROI
- 43-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -3.86% ROI
- 43-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -3.94% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 5 of 239 right-handed batters (2%) this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .104 (5-for-48) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .270 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 14.2 (71/5) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 8.5 (127/15) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.3 — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 57% (124/219) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers allowed an OBP of .500 (16 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .292 — sixth Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (101/354) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .733 (96 Total Bases / 131 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .545 — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-32 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are 24-22 (.522) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Phillies are just 34-6 (.850) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 4-31 (.114) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Marlins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are just 2-38 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have grounded into 5 double plays in 19 opportunities (26%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (965 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies hitters are slugging .514 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,383 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .501 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Marlins hitters have 657 strikeouts in 2,383 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .266 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 1.40 (45.0 IP) against division opponents this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (1132.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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