- The Phillies (79-62) are -135 favorites vs the Marlins (58-84)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (9-6), 4.57 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (5-2), 2.63 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Wednesday, September 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 78-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 66-74 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -115 | -135 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 -105 | +115 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Wednesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 57 away games (+18.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 53 away games (+16.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 away games (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 58 games (+13.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 53 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+14.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games at home (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -140 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 80 of their last 136 games (+20.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 away games (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 66 games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 71-67 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 0.83% ROI).
- 78-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 2.72% ROI
- 70-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 0.52% ROI
- 63-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.4 Units / -8.77% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 66-74 against the Run Line (-19.6 Units / -10.55% ROI).
- 58-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.4 Units / -16.63% ROI
- 62-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.05 Units / -11% ROI
- 72-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 2.66% ROI
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (tied for fifth lowest)– 11th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (322/655) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 64% (434/684) in two strike counts this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 19th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% (363/618) this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 11th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has allowed a slugging percentage of .615 (16 Total Bases / 26 ABs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — second Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has allowed an OPS of .949 (27 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .434 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .308 (8-for-26) against Edward Cabrera with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .144 — third Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 60% (117/195) this month (2 games) — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-47 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 24-4 (.857) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 46-7 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Marlins are just 8-48 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,569 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .858 (411 PA’s) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .873 (126 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
The Phillies are batting .268 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,904 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 804 strikeouts in 2,904 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .627 (2,904 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .588 (1,208 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 173 of 2,677 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (3,410 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (3,410 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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