Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 16, 2022, 11:07 AM
  • The Phillies (32-31) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (23-42)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (5-3), 2.84 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (3-8), 6.64 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+170) on Thursday, June 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 32-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-40 ATS.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -135O 9 -105-200
Nationals +1.5 +110U 9 -115+170

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+11.10 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 19% ROI)

Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Josh Bell 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Juan Soto 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Lane Thomas 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Josh Bell 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Juan Soto 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Lane Thomas 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Josh Bell 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Juan Soto 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Lane Thomas 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Patrick Corbin 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
Zack Wheeler 5.5 -140 5.5 +100
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 27 away games (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 away games (+11.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 32-31 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 1.24% ROI).

  • 32-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -5.84% ROI
  • 36-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.65 Units / 12.43% ROI
  • 25-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -20.68% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 25-40 against the Run Line (-21.35 Units / -26.77% ROI).

  • 23-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -16.32% ROI
  • 35-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 7.27% ROI
  • 27-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.15 Units / -15.65% ROI

Zack Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 46% (29 SO in 63 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,275/2,873) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 71.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (173 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 80.1

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 72.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (127 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .360 (150 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .313 (89-for-284) against Patrick Corbin this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .256 (33-for-129) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .376 (314 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

The Phillies are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Phillies are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Phillies are just 115-13 (.898) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 4-39 (.093) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are 10-2 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Nationals are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Nationals are just 5-19 (.208) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

Phillies hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

The Phillies are batting .396 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.

Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.

Nationals hitters have just 522 strikeouts in 2,613 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have just 134 strikeouts in 766 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,428 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

The Nationals are batting .273 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .255 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .282 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.