- The Phillies (32-31) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (23-42)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (5-3), 2.84 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (3-8), 6.64 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+170) on Thursday, June 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 32-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-40 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -135 | O 9 -105 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +110 | U 9 -115 | +170 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+11.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
| Zack Wheeler | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 27 away games (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 away games (+11.65 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 32-31 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 1.24% ROI).
- 32-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -5.84% ROI
- 36-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.65 Units / 12.43% ROI
- 25-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -20.68% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 25-40 against the Run Line (-21.35 Units / -26.77% ROI).
- 23-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -16.32% ROI
- 35-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 7.27% ROI
- 27-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.15 Units / -15.65% ROI
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 46% (29 SO in 63 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,275/2,873) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 71.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (173 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 80.1
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 72.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (127 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .360 (150 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .313 (89-for-284) against Patrick Corbin this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .256 (33-for-129) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .376 (314 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Phillies are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Phillies are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Phillies are just 115-13 (.898) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 4-39 (.093) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are 10-2 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Nationals are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Nationals are just 5-19 (.208) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
The Phillies are batting .396 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 522 strikeouts in 2,613 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 134 strikeouts in 766 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,428 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Nationals are batting .273 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .255 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .282 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
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