Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 9:02 AM
  • The Phillies (33-31) are -190 favorites vs the Nationals (23-43)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (4-4), 4.39 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Joan Adon (1-10), 6.95 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Philadelphia Phillies (-190) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+155) in Game 1 of their doubleheader on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 33-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-41 ATS.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -125O 10.5 +100-190
Nationals +1.5 +105U 10.5 -120+155

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+10.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+9.55 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
    Josh Bell 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
    Juan Soto 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
    Lane Thomas 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
    Luis Garcia 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

    Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Cesar Hernandez 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
    Josh Bell 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
    Juan Soto 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
    Luis Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
    Maikel Franco 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

    Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
    Josh Bell 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
    Juan Soto 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
    Lane Thomas 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
    Luis Garcia 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

    Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Joan Adon 3.5 +110 3.5 -155
    Ranger Suarez 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 28 away games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 away games (+12.65 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games (+18.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 33-31 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.49% ROI).

    • 33-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • 37-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.65 Units / 13.65% ROI
    • 25-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.4 Units / -21.92% ROI

    Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 25-41 against the Run Line (-22.35 Units / -27.68% ROI).

    • 23-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -12 Units / -17.54% ROI
    • 36-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 8.53% ROI
    • 27-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -16.93% ROI

    Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 61% (502/826) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

    Ranger Suarez has walked 22 of 207 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (95/432) against Ranger Suarez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.

    Hitters have chased just 10 of Ranger Suarez’s 104 elevated fastballs out of the zone (10%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

    Joan Adon: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Paolo Espino has walked 4 of 119 batters (3%) this season — tied for 12th best among among 245 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 95th Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (16/55) against Paolo Espino this season — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.

    Paolo Espino has walked 2 of 72 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 92nd Percentile.

    Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (21/144) against Paolo Espino in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

    Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

    The Phillies are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

    The Phillies are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

    The Phillies are just 24-4 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.

    The Phillies are 17-103 (.142) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

    Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

    The Nationals are just 11-23 (.324) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

    The Nationals are just 4-139 (.028) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.

    The Nationals are just 12-20 (.375) on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.

    The Nationals are just 4-40 (.091) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

    Phillies hitters are slugging .461 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.

    Phillies hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,104 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.

    Phillies hitters are slugging .451 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

    Phillies hitters have 650 strikeouts in 2,725 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Nationals hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,428 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    The Nationals have scored 0.97 runs per game (64/66) in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.

    Nationals hitters have just 344 strikeouts in 1,703 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Nationals hitters have grounded into 217 double plays in 1,714 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

    Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.98 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

    Nationals pitchers have walked 248 of 2,592 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .328 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

    Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.