- The Phillies (33-31) are -190 favorites vs the Nationals (23-43)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-2), 4.20 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-1), 2.07 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-190) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+155) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 33-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-41 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -125 | O 10.5 +100 | -190 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | U 10.5 -120 | +155 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+10.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+9.55 Units / 60% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 68% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joan Adon | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -155 |
| Ranger Suarez | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 28 away games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 away games (+12.65 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games (+18.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 33-31 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.49% ROI).
- 33-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -4.55% ROI
- 37-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.65 Units / 13.65% ROI
- 25-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.4 Units / -21.92% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 25-41 against the Run Line (-22.35 Units / -27.68% ROI).
- 23-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -12 Units / -17.54% ROI
- 36-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 8.53% ROI
- 27-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -16.93% ROI
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has walked 22 of 207 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (70/351) against Ranger Suarez this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (43/73) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (85/461) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paolo Espino has a strike rate of 78% (76/97) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 68% — 100th Percentile.
Paolo Espino has walked 4 of 119 batters (3%) this season — tied for 12th best among among 245 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (16/55) against Paolo Espino this season — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (11/86) against Paolo Espino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Phillies are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Phillies are just 24-4 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Phillies are 83-64 (.565) at home since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 11-23 (.324) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Nationals are just 4-139 (.028) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Nationals are just 8-26 (.235) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Nationals are just 4-40 (.091) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .784 (792 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Phillies hitters are slugging .461 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Phillies hitters are slugging .679 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,104 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .324 (5,968 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,617 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Nationals hitters have just 136 strikeouts in 770 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (5,505 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.98 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Nationals pitchers have walked 248 of 2,592 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
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