Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 9:20 AM
  • The Phillies (33-31) are -190 favorites vs the Nationals (23-43)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-2), 4.20 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-1), 2.07 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Philadelphia Phillies (-190) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+155) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 33-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-41 ATS.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -125O 10.5 +100-190
Nationals +1.5 +105U 10.5 -120+155

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+10.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+9.55 Units / 60% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 68% ROI)

Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Josh Bell 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Juan Soto 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Lane Thomas 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Luis Garcia 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Josh Bell 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Juan Soto 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Luis Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Maikel Franco 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Josh Bell 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Juan Soto 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Lane Thomas 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Luis Garcia 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joan Adon 3.5 +110 3.5 -155
Ranger Suarez 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 28 away games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 away games (+12.65 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games (+18.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 33-31 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.49% ROI).

  • 33-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • 37-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.65 Units / 13.65% ROI
  • 25-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.4 Units / -21.92% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 25-41 against the Run Line (-22.35 Units / -27.68% ROI).

  • 23-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -12 Units / -17.54% ROI
  • 36-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 8.53% ROI
  • 27-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -16.93% ROI

Ranger Suarez has walked 22 of 207 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (70/351) against Ranger Suarez this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (43/73) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (85/461) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Paolo Espino has a strike rate of 78% (76/97) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 68% — 100th Percentile.

Paolo Espino has walked 4 of 119 batters (3%) this season — tied for 12th best among among 245 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 95th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (16/55) against Paolo Espino this season — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (11/86) against Paolo Espino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Phillies are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Phillies are just 24-4 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Phillies are 83-64 (.565) at home since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .535.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 11-23 (.324) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

The Nationals are just 4-139 (.028) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Nationals are just 8-26 (.235) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.

The Nationals are just 4-40 (.091) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .784 (792 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Phillies hitters are slugging .461 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.

Phillies hitters are slugging .679 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,104 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .324 (5,968 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,617 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Nationals hitters have just 136 strikeouts in 770 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (5,505 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.98 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Nationals pitchers have walked 248 of 2,592 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.