- The Phillies (35-31) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (23-45)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (4-4), 3.41 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (6-4), 4.33 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Saturday, June 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 35-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 26-42 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -105 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | +165 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 34-32 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.43% ROI).
- 35-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -2.18% ROI
- 38-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.55 Units / 13.1% ROI
- 26-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -21.39% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 26-42 against the Run Line (-22.55 Units / -27.02% ROI).
- 23-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -14 Units / -19.89% ROI
- 37-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.15 Units / 8.15% ROI
- 28-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -16.57% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .083 (3-for-36) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .278 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .206 (7-for-34) against Aaron Nola on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .325 — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (4 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .436 — 98th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 10 of 317 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has walked 20 of 111 left-handed batters (18%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 55% (254/465) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (42/163) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.034 (30 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .360 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 8-23 (.258) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Phillies are 7-22 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Phillies are 17-112 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Phillies are just 11-18 (.379) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 11-25 (.306) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Nationals are just 4-140 (.028) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Nationals are just 4-41 (.089) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 12-20 (.375) on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .387 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Phillies hitters are slugging .448 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (805 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .787 (1,189 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .273 on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Nationals hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 193 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 31% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,674 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .279 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .254 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.98 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.77 (246.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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