Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 18, 2022, 11:20 AM
  • The Phillies (35-31) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (23-45)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (4-4), 3.41 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (6-4), 4.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Saturday, June 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35pm EDT in Washington.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 35-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 26-42 ATS.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -125O 8.5 -105-200
Nationals +1.5 +105U 8.5 -115+165

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 67% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+5.05 Units / 42% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.65 Units / 43% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 62% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
    Josh Bell 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
    Juan Soto 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
    Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
    Lane Thomas 0.5 +360 0.5 -650

    Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
    Josh Bell 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Juan Soto 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
    Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
    Lane Thomas 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

    Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
    Josh Bell 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
    Juan Soto 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
    Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
    Lane Thomas 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

    Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Josiah Gray 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
    Aaron Nola 6.5 -105 6.5 -135
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 30 away games (+13.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 21 away games (+12.55 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.15 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 55 games (+18.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 14 games at home (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 34-32 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.43% ROI).

    • 35-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -2.18% ROI
    • 38-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.55 Units / 13.1% ROI
    • 26-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -21.39% ROI

    Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 26-42 against the Run Line (-22.55 Units / -27.02% ROI).

    • 23-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -14 Units / -19.89% ROI
    • 37-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.15 Units / 8.15% ROI
    • 28-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -16.57% ROI

    Opponents are hitting just .083 (3-for-36) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .278 — 100th Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting just .206 (7-for-34) against Aaron Nola on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .325 — 95th Percentile.

    Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (4 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .436 — 98th Percentile.

    Aaron Nola has walked 10 of 317 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

    Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Josiah Gray has walked 20 of 111 left-handed batters (18%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

    Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 55% (254/465) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (42/163) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

    Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.034 (30 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .360 — 0 Percentile.

    Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

    The Phillies are 8-23 (.258) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

    The Phillies are 7-22 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

    The Phillies are 17-112 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

    The Phillies are just 11-18 (.379) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

    The Nationals are just 11-25 (.306) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

    The Nationals are just 4-140 (.028) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.

    The Nationals are just 4-41 (.089) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

    The Nationals are just 12-20 (.375) on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.

    The Phillies are batting .387 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.

    Phillies hitters are slugging .448 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

    Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (805 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

    Phillies hitters have an OPS of .787 (1,189 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .692.

    The Nationals are batting .273 on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .239.

    Nationals hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 193 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 31% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.

    Nationals hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,674 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .279 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .254 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

    The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

    Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.98 (271.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

    Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

    Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.77 (246.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.

    Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.