Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (108-48) are favorites vs the (108-48)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (5-4), 4.20 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (6-11), 5.34 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Philadelphia Phillies () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 83-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 70-85 ATS.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies O
Nationals U

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 44 games (+20.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+16.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)

Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Joey Meneses 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Lane Thomas 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600

Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 -155 0.5 +105
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Joey Meneses 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Lane Thomas 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Call 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Joey Meneses 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Lane Thomas 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Erick Fedde 3.5 -140 3.5 -105
Bailey Falter 5.5 +100 5.5 -140
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.35 Units / 29% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -2.41% ROI).

  • 83-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -1.38% ROI
  • 77-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -1.34% ROI
  • 72-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -6.92% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 70-85 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -11.64% ROI).

  • 54-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.57% ROI
  • 71-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.65 Units / -6.77% ROI
  • 75-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -1.36% ROI

Noah Syndergaard has allowed 30 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (26 Total Bases / 30 ABs) in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 25 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (887/1,684) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (254/1,157) against Erick Fedde this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 52% (1,022/1,968) when ahead in the count since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 61% (1,372/2,262) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 14-54 (.206) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 17-88 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 11-187 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.

The Nationals are just 9-86 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Phillies hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Phillies hitters are slugging .238 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

The Phillies are batting .178 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .343 (729 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .486 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .559.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Phillies pitchers have walked 182 of 2,799 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (3,760 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .264 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 71% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.