- The – (108-48) are favorites vs the – (108-48)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (5-4), 4.20 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (6-11), 5.34 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Philadelphia Phillies () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 83-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 70-85 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 44 games (+20.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+16.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +105 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 -105 |
| Bailey Falter | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -2.41% ROI).
- 83-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 77-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -1.34% ROI
- 72-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -6.92% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 70-85 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -11.64% ROI).
- 54-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.57% ROI
- 71-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.65 Units / -6.77% ROI
- 75-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -1.36% ROI
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 30 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (26 Total Bases / 30 ABs) in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 25 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (887/1,684) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (254/1,157) against Erick Fedde this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 52% (1,022/1,968) when ahead in the count since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 61% (1,372/2,262) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 14-54 (.206) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 17-88 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 11-187 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Nationals are just 9-86 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Phillies hitters are slugging .238 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Phillies are batting .178 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .343 (729 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .486 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 182 of 2,799 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (3,760 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .264 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 71% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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