Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 24

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 24, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Phillies (37-34) are -130 favorites vs the Padres (44-28)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (4-4), 3.11 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (4-3), 3.64 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+110) on Friday, June 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 37-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 39-33 ATS.

Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +135O 7 -105-130
Padres +1.5 -165U 7 -115+110

Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 64.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.55 Units / 56% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.35 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+6.30 Units / 124% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 66% ROI)

Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -115 0.5 -115
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mackenzie Gore 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
Aaron Nola 6.5 -105 6.5 -140
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 71 games (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 35-36 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -2.36% ROI).

  • 37-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -3.8% ROI
  • 40-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.3 Units / 10.6% ROI
  • 29-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -18.9% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-33 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 7.59% ROI).

  • 44-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.05 Units / 9.05% ROI
  • 32-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -11.64% ROI
  • 38-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 3.56% ROI

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 9.0 (99/11) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.3 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 28% (13 SO in 46 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 4 of 183 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .079 (3-for-38) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 100th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .176 (6 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 97th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has thrown fastballs 80% of the time (159/198) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 98th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 34% (22 SO in 65 PAs) versus the heart of the order this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (15/25) against MacKenzie Gore against right-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — third Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Phillies are 8-26 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Phillies are 7-25 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Phillies are just 19-49 (.279) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.

The Phillies are just 11-18 (.379) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Padres are 5-20 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Padres are just 35-4 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Padres are 20-14 (.588) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Padres are 20-5 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

The Phillies are batting .366 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Phillies hitters are slugging .428 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .387.

Phillies hitters are slugging .634 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .566.

Phillies hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,272 of their 3,786 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have just 13 strikeouts in 109 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters are slugging .236 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .283 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .257 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Padres pitchers have walked 39 of 652 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Louis Voit (Padres): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.