- The Phillies (37-34) are -130 favorites vs the Padres (44-28)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (4-4), 3.11 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (4-3), 3.64 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+110) on Friday, June 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 37-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 39-33 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 7 -105 | -130 |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -115 | +110 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.55 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+6.30 Units / 124% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 66% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 71 games (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 35-36 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 37-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 40-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.3 Units / 10.6% ROI
- 29-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -18.9% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-33 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 7.59% ROI).
- 44-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.05 Units / 9.05% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -11.64% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 3.56% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 9.0 (99/11) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.3 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 28% (13 SO in 46 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 4 of 183 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .079 (3-for-38) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .176 (6 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has thrown fastballs 80% of the time (159/198) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 98th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 34% (22 SO in 65 PAs) versus the heart of the order this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (15/25) against MacKenzie Gore against right-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 8-26 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Phillies are 7-25 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Phillies are just 19-49 (.279) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Phillies are just 11-18 (.379) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 5-20 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Padres are just 35-4 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.
The Padres are 20-14 (.588) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Padres are 20-5 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .366 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Phillies hitters are slugging .428 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Phillies hitters are slugging .634 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .566.
Phillies hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,272 of their 3,786 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have just 13 strikeouts in 109 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters are slugging .236 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .283 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .257 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have walked 39 of 652 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Louis Voit (Padres): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
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