- The Cardinals are -275 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Vincent Velasquez
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-275) on Thursday, April 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 7-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 6-6 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +2.5 -125 | O 8.5 -105 | +220 |
| Cardinals | -2.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | -275 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+9.55 Units / 70% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+6.55 Units / 164% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Walker has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Runs Over in his last 4 games at home (+6.10 Units / 149% ROI)
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vincent Velasquez | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 away games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -12.17% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 29.84% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -3.03% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -3.03% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -6.21% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -19.74% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -36.64% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 25.47% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Vince Velasquez allowed a just .208 SLG vs right-handed batters (13th best)– 88th Percentile and .579 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (13th worst among qualified RPs)– 11th Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.4 MPH on non-fastballs since the 2021 season (245 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 86.9
Vince Velasquez allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.9 MPH (220 batted balls) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 88.6 — 0 Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.1 MPH against his curves since the 2021 season (78 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 87.2
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 10% (2/20) against Jordan Montgomery with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery attempted to pick off a runner at second base 8 timesin 2022 — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
69% of Jordan Montgomery’s called strikeouts were low in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 95th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (24/48) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 103-74 (.582) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Pirates were just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 39-174 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Pirates were just 15-37 (.288) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals were 16-4 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 25-10 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 84-34 (.712) when scoring in the first inning since the 2021 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
The Cardinals were 10-56 (.152) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .310 in righty-righty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Pirates batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Pirates hitters have put just 28% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .805 (2,701 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Cardinals hitters have 267 extra-base hits out of 626 total hits (43%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have 287 extra-base hits out of 676 total hits (42%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 625 of 6,652 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,231 of 12,792 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals): Thumb, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Left Forearm, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Groin, D15
- Paul DeJong (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Austin Hedges (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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