Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 10

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Diamondbacks (50-59) are -155 favorites vs the Pirates (44-66)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-8), 4.20 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-10), 3.95 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) on Wednesday, August 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 44-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 63-46 ATS.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -155O 8 -105+125
Diamondbacks -1.5 +125U 8 -115-155

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 76.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Tucupita Marcano has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 away games (+9.55 Units / 122% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Tucupita Marcano has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 70 games (+25.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 51 of his last 73 games (+16.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+12.65 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 62 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.25 Units / 53% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Carson Kelly 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Christian Walker 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Carson Kelly 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Christian Walker 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 -145 0.5 +100

Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Carson Kelly 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Christian Walker 0.5 +115 0.5 -165
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +260 0.5 -450

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Madison Bumgarner 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
Mitch Keller 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 101 games (+6.80 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+4.10 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 69 games (+3.60 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 98 games (+17.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 31 games (+15.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+6.20 Units / 10% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 57-53 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -2.34% ROI).

  • 44-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -1.35% ROI
  • 47-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -11.68% ROI
  • 56-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 3.53% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 63-46 against the Run Line (+14.4 Units / 10.27% ROI).

  • 50-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -3.05% ROI
  • 49-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -9.38% ROI
  • 55-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.21% ROI

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .420 (219 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .438 (112 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .418 (172-for-411) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.1 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (302 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 86.9

Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

27 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

58 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

27 of Madison Bumgarner’s 57 breaking pitch strikeouts (47%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (124/731) against Madison Bumgarner this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Pirates are just 15-58 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Pirates are just 85-22 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 2-53 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Pirates are 14-3 (.824) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Diamondbacks are just 94-27 (.777) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 103-18 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 48-113 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .220 (6,409 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .656 (3,099 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .193 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .222 on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Pirates pitchers have walked 217 of 2,369 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
  • Caleb Smith (Diamondbacks): Hand, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • José Godoy (Pirates): Cramping/Illness, Day-to-Day
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.