- The Diamondbacks (50-59) are -155 favorites vs the Pirates (44-66)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-8), 4.20 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-10), 3.95 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) on Wednesday, August 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 44-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 63-46 ATS.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -105 | +125 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -115 | -155 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 76.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 away games (+9.55 Units / 122% ROI)
- Ben Gamel has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 70 games (+25.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 51 of his last 73 games (+16.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+12.65 Units / 90% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 62 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.25 Units / 53% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -165 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Madison Bumgarner | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 101 games (+6.80 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+4.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 69 games (+3.60 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 98 games (+17.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 31 games (+15.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+6.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 57-53 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -2.34% ROI).
- 44-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -1.35% ROI
- 47-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 56-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 3.53% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 63-46 against the Run Line (+14.4 Units / 10.27% ROI).
- 50-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -3.05% ROI
- 49-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -9.38% ROI
- 55-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.21% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .420 (219 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .438 (112 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .418 (172-for-411) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.1 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (302 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 86.9
Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
27 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
58 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
27 of Madison Bumgarner’s 57 breaking pitch strikeouts (47%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (124/731) against Madison Bumgarner this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 15-58 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Pirates are just 85-22 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 2-53 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Pirates are 14-3 (.824) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 94-27 (.777) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 103-18 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 48-113 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .220 (6,409 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .656 (3,099 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .193 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .222 on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 217 of 2,369 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
- Caleb Smith (Diamondbacks): Hand, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- José Godoy (Pirates): Cramping/Illness, Day-to-Day
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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