- The Mets (89-55) are -250 favorites vs the Pirates (55-88)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (3-11), 4.35 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (14-6), 3.80 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-250) on Thursday, September 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Pirates vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 54-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 76-65 ATS.
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +100 | O 7 +100 | +200 |
| Mets | -1.5 -120 | U 7 -120 | -250 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Thursday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 40 games at home (+18.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+15.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 54 games (+13.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 62 games (+12.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
| JT Brubaker | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games (+5.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 66% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 81 of their last 144 games (+8.17 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+5.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 71-68 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -2.91% ROI).
- 54-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -4.32% ROI
- 60-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -10.78% ROI
- 70-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 2.64% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 76-65 against the Run Line (+9.75 Units / 5.54% ROI).
- 88-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 2.25% ROI
- 72-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 2.35% ROI
- 62-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.25 Units / -11.11% ROI
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (322/968) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (161/516) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (640/1,200) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 60% (726/1,200) in two strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .365 (31-for-85) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .225 — second Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.494 (94 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 1.034 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .455 (51-for-112) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .716 (53 Total Bases / 74 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .416 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 92-25 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 17-76 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Pirates are just 57-125 (.313) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Pirates are just 38-10 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are 66-5 (.930) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Mets are 75-23 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 78-5 (.940) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .883.
The Mets are just 3-45 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .448 (5,884 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .281 (1,684 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .219 (5,884 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,833 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (3,790 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have just 1,075 strikeouts in 5,474 PA’s (20%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,112 of 11,625 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 9% with runners in scoring position this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 232 of 2,651 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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