- The Yankees (89-58) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (55-93)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (5-4), 3.24 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (5-3), 3.45 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+225) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-275) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 54-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 62-80 ATS.
Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +110 | O 7.5 +100 | +225 |
| Yankees | -1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -120 | -275 |
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 68.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.45 Units / 57% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+13.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+11.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Yankees vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Yankees vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Yankees vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +120 |
| Roansy Contreras | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 away games (+8.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 away games (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 73-71 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -3.25% ROI).
- 54-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -7.55% ROI
- 63-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -9.84% ROI
- 72-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 1.66% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 62-80 against the Run Line (-21.35 Units / -12.9% ROI).
- 88-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -0.31% ROI
- 68-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.05 Units / -6.35% ROI
- 71-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -2.51% ROI
Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (11/82) against Roansy Contreras on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (18/113) against Roansy Contreras on breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
72% of Roansy Contreras’ non-fastball strikeouts are located away this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 97th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has allowed a slugging percentage of just .210 (22 Total Bases / 105 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 89th Percentile.
Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 398.1
83% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of 47% (59 SO in 127 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 88th Percentile.
73% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates are just 17-80 (.175) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 57-130 (.305) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Pirates are just 2-74 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 52-81 (.391) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 51-22 (.699) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Yankees are 61-10 (.859) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Yankees are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .278 (1,729 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .219 (5,997 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Pirates are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .746 (3,617 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 533 of 5,686 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,388 of 14,053 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,139 of 11,826 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 24 of 201 batters (12%) over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Yankees vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Marwin Gonzalez (Yankees): Head, Day-to-Day
- Clarke Schmidt (Yankees): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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