Pirates vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (89-58) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (55-93)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (5-4), 3.24 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (5-3), 3.45 ERA
  • Watch the game on YES

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+225) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-275) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 54-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 62-80 ATS.

Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 +110O 7.5 +100+225
Yankees -1.5 -135U 7.5 -120-275

Pirates vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 68.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.80 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.45 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+13.15 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+11.75 Units / 21% ROI)

Yankees vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000

Yankees vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Yankees vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Yankees vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Severino 4.5 -175 4.5 +120
Roansy Contreras 3.5 -115 3.5 -120
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 away games (+8.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 away games (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.15 Units / 13% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 73-71 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -3.25% ROI).

  • 54-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -7.55% ROI
  • 63-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -9.84% ROI
  • 72-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 1.66% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 62-80 against the Run Line (-21.35 Units / -12.9% ROI).

  • 88-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -0.31% ROI
  • 68-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.05 Units / -6.35% ROI
  • 71-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -2.51% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (11/82) against Roansy Contreras on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (18/113) against Roansy Contreras on breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

72% of Roansy Contreras’ non-fastball strikeouts are located away this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 97th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has allowed a slugging percentage of just .210 (22 Total Bases / 105 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 89th Percentile.

Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 398.1

83% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 98th Percentile.

Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of 47% (59 SO in 127 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 88th Percentile.

73% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 95th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Pirates are just 17-80 (.175) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 57-130 (.305) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

The Pirates are just 2-74 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 52-81 (.391) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 51-22 (.699) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Yankees are 61-10 (.859) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Yankees are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .278 (1,729 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .219 (5,997 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Pirates are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .746 (3,617 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

Pirates pitchers have walked 533 of 5,686 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,388 of 14,053 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,139 of 11,826 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 24 of 201 batters (12%) over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Yankees vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Marwin Gonzalez (Yankees): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Clarke Schmidt (Yankees): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.