- The Rangers (66-88) are +100 favorites vs the Mariners (84-70)
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (7-7), 3.63 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales (10-15), 4.05 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Texas Rangers (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Rangers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Rangers vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rangers are 66-88 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 81-73 ATS.
Rangers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | -1.5 +170 | O 7 -105 | +100 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -115 | -120 |
Rangers vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s matchup with 64.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 away games (+25.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 58 away games (+24.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+22.30 Units / 63% ROI)
- Kole Calhoun has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 55 of his last 87 games (+15.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 42 of his last 59 games at home (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+10.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Mariners vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mariners vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Mariners vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Mariners vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
| Jon Gray | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 82-72 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 0.58% ROI).
- 66-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -10.86% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -7.51% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 81-73 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -1.52% ROI).
- 84-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 1.65% ROI
- 70-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.35 Units / -7.91% ROI
- 77-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.32% ROI
Jonathan Gray: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .165 (85-for-514) against Jon Gray’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 95th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Jon Gray vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 is 417.6 feet — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
Opponents are hitting just .164 (35-for-214) against Jon Gray’s non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .190 (44-for-231) against Jon Gray this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 94th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has allowed a slugging percentage of .733 (63 Total Bases / 86 ABs) on low fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .425 — 0 Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has averaged 88.4 MPH on fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has averaged 88.4 MPH on fastballs since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 93.2 — third Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has located his fastball inside 51% of the time (1,103/2,177) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rangers are just 51-10 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are 36-11 (.766) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Rangers are just 21-70 (.231) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Rangers are just 63-77 (.450) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Mariners are 65-1 (.985) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 41-9 (.820) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Mariners are 44-37 (.543) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Mariners are 37-11 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (8,078 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters have a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (4,047 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Rangers are hitting .317 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .165 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .216 at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .216 at home since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 135 of 1,369 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 552 of 5,870 batters (9%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 26 of 218 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (25 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have won 33% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hip, D60
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Corey Seager (Rangers): Arm, Day-to-Day
- Dane Dunning (Rangers): Hip, D15
- Nicholas Solak (Rangers): Foot, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
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