Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Rays (86-74) are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox (76-84)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (9-4), 2.44 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (5-3), 4.05 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Tampa Bay Rays (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 86-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 81-79 ATS.

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 +145O 7.5 -120-120
Red Sox +1.5 -175U 7.5 +100+100

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Connor Wong 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +500 0.5 -1200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Connor Wong 0.5 -110 0.5 -135
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Connor Wong 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeffrey Springs 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Nathan Eovaldi 5.5 +115 5.5 -165
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-81 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -1.53% ROI).

  • 86-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -2.88% ROI
  • 70-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.7 Units / -9.07% ROI
  • 80-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 0.92% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -0.97% ROI).

  • 76-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.5 Units / -8.37% ROI
  • 75-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -3.67% ROI
  • 75-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -3.96% ROI

Jeffrey Springs has allowed an OBP of just .036 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .216 — 100th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (711/1,627) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (913/2,119) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .211 (104-for-493) against Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 90th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 70% (705/1,005) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has walked 6 of 298 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has walked 22 of 509 left-handed batters (4%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has walked 1 of 108 batters (1%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 10-35 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Rays hitters have grounded into 165 double plays in 2,173 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Rays hitters are averaging just 3.80 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Rays hitters have grounded into 26 double plays in 405 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .272 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .431 against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .401.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rays pitchers have walked 812 of 11,867 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 74 of 1,430 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 167 of 2,892 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 980 of 14,079 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (649.1 IP) against division opponents this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.