- The Rays (86-74) are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox (76-84)
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (9-4), 2.44 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (5-3), 4.05 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 86-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 81-79 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -120 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 +100 | +100 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -135 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-81 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -1.53% ROI).
- 86-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -2.88% ROI
- 70-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.7 Units / -9.07% ROI
- 80-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 0.92% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -0.97% ROI).
- 76-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.5 Units / -8.37% ROI
- 75-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -3.67% ROI
- 75-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -3.96% ROI
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jeffrey Springs has allowed an OBP of just .036 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .216 — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (711/1,627) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (913/2,119) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .211 (104-for-493) against Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 90th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 70% (705/1,005) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 6 of 298 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 22 of 509 left-handed batters (4%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 1 of 108 batters (1%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 10-35 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 165 double plays in 2,173 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays hitters are averaging just 3.80 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Rays hitters have grounded into 26 double plays in 405 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .431 against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 812 of 11,867 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 74 of 1,430 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 167 of 2,892 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 980 of 14,079 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (649.1 IP) against division opponents this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
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