- The Twins (33-26) are -120 favorites vs the Rays (34-23)
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (5-2), 3.019 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer (2-0), 1.929 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Tampa Bay Rays (+100) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-120) on Friday, June 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Rays vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 34-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 26-33 ATS.
Rays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -105 | +100 |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -115 | -120 |
Rays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s matchup with 70.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 22 away games (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+14.45 Units / 92% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+10.40 Units / 69% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.35 Units / 91% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+7.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games (+6.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games (+4.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 28-29 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 2.94% ROI).
- 34-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 2.1% ROI
- 25-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -11.84% ROI
- 30-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 3.92% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 26-33 against the Run Line (-7.95 Units / -11.62% ROI).
- 33-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 6.49% ROI
- 28-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -1.71% ROI
- 27-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -6.3% ROI
Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .125 (4-for-32) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .327 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (39/69) against Drew Rasmussen this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .257 (55-for-214) against Drew Rasmussen in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .210 (17-for-81) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Devin Smeltzer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Devin Smeltzer has induced opposing hitters to ground into 5 double plays in 16 opportunities (31%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Devin Smeltzer has a strikeout rate of just 12% (13 SO in 104 PAs) this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Devin Smeltzer has an average fastball velocity of just 89.9 MPH this season — 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (14/85) against Devin Smeltzer this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 15-82 (.155) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Rays are 21-13 (.618) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Rays are 13-10 (.565) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Rays are 2-18 (.100) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are 23-2 (.920) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Twins are 3-17 (.150) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Twins are 16-5 (.762) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Twins are 15-13 (.536) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored 1.87 runs per game (403/216) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.44.
Rays hitters have an OBP of just .297 (952 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Rays hitters have just 93 strikeouts in 524 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays have scored 356 runs in late innings since the start of last season — most in MLB.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .552 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .325 (1,066 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .307.
The Twins have scored 250 runs in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Twins hitters have just 29 strikeouts in 178 PA’s (16%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 141 of 2,106 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 28 of 516 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 121 of 1,978 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 159 of 2,506 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ryan (Twins): COVID-19, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D10
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Quad, D10
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Chris Mazza (Rays): Back, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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