- The Yankees are -145 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley, 0.00 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino, 18.00 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Tampa Bay Rays (+120) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-145) on Saturday, March 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Tampa.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Rays vs Yankees Over/Under is 12 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Rays are 2-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 2-1 ATS.
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -150 | O 12 -105 | +120 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +125 | U 12 -115 | -145 |
Rays vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kevin Kiermaier has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 away games (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 80 games at home (+13.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 5-1 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 66.44% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -21.99% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 2-1 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 18.52% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 19.8% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 26.87% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -35.38% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley is making his MLB debut today.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Luwas Severino last season was 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 397.8
The last hit on a Luis Severino changeup was September 21st, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Bryan Baker has the longest active streak at 28.
Opponents batted just .171 (30-for-175) against Luis Severino on the road last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 97th Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order batted just .180 against Luis Severino last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 96th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters put 39% of their swings in play against LHP last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Rays batted just .201 with runners on base over the last 30 days of the regular season (29 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters have grounded into 205 double plays in 2,580 opportunities (8%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters struck out just 29 times in 177 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (17 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 890 walks in 8,783 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees batted just .214 with two outs last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.176 (2,320 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 820 of 11,928 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 988 of 14,140 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 206 of 3,433 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 168 of 2,905 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
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