- The Blue Jays (88-69) are -155 favorites vs the Red Sox (75-82)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (2-7), 4.38 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Thomas Stripling (9-4), 3.15 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+130) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-155) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 75-82 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 68-89 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -115 | +130 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -105 | -155 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 55 away games (+21.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 27 away games (+18.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 54 away games (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 53 away games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+13.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 45 games at home (+13.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 56 games at home (+12.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bo Bichette | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ross Stripling | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 128 games (+6.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 70 away games (+4.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 away games (+4.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+15.62 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 116 games (+12.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+6.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 80-77 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.13% ROI).
- 75-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.7 Units / -8.09% ROI
- 73-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -4.31% ROI
- 74-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -3.26% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-89 against the Run Line (-26.6 Units / -14.13% ROI).
- 88-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.1 Units / -7.01% ROI
- 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -1.43% ROI
- 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -7.95% ROI
Brayan Bello: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello allowed an OBP of .467 (15 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .267 — third Percentile.
The last hit on a Brayan Bello changeup was September 14th. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Bryan Baker has the longest active streak at 24.
Thomas Stripling: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 382.1 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 397.9
Ross Stripling has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (362/515) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (29/163) against Ross Stripling on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 36% (172/473) against Ross Stripling this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Red Sox are just 5-61 (.076) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 16-14 (.533) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 43-35 (.551) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Blue Jays are 45-34 (.570) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Blue Jays are 74-19 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,501 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .260 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Blue Jays hitters have just 237 strikeouts in 1,216 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .660 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .449 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.26 (624.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 415 of 5,888 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 888 of 11,804 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (3,883 batted balls) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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