- The Red Sox (39-31) are -120 favorites vs the Guardians (36-29)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (7-5), 3.30 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (4-4), 3.76 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Friday, June 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 39-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 37-28 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -110 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -110 | +100 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 67.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.40 Units / 106% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Nick Pivetta | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+8.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 69 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games (+14.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 34 games (+4.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 34 games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 38-32 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 6.64% ROI).
- 39-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 1.95% ROI
- 27-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -13.93% ROI
- 35-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 8.42% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 37-28 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 10.02% ROI).
- 36-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 12.09% ROI
- 31-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.73% ROI
- 29-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -7.02% ROI
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (42/262) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 5 of 20 left-handed batters (25%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (164/330) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .087 (4 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — 100th Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (43/326) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has struck out just 12% (21/172) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 15% (44 SO in 297 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 4% (4 SO in 91 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are 19-15 (.559) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Red Sox are just 1-21 (.045) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Red Sox are 17-3 (.850) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Red Sox are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 7-24 (.226) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Guardians are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox have scored first in 79% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have just 456 strikeouts in 2,464 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians have won 50% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Guardians pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): COVID-19, D10
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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