Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 24

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 24, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox (39-31) are -120 favorites vs the Guardians (36-29)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (7-5), 3.30 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (4-4), 3.76 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Friday, June 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 39-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 37-28 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +135O 9 -110-120
Guardians +1.5 -165U 9 -110+100

Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 67.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.40 Units / 106% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.10 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)

Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Austin Hedges 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +340 0.5 -600

Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Austin Hedges 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Austin Hedges 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +120 0.5 -175

Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Quantrill 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
Nick Pivetta 4.5 -165 4.5 +115
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+8.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 69 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games (+14.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 34 games (+4.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 34 games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 38-32 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 6.64% ROI).

  • 39-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 1.95% ROI
  • 27-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -13.93% ROI
  • 35-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 8.42% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 37-28 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 10.02% ROI).

  • 36-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 12.09% ROI
  • 31-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.73% ROI
  • 29-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -7.02% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (42/262) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has walked 5 of 20 left-handed batters (25%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (164/330) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .087 (4 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — 100th Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (43/326) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has struck out just 12% (21/172) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 15% (44 SO in 297 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 4% (4 SO in 91 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — seventh Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are 19-15 (.559) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Red Sox are just 1-21 (.045) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Red Sox are 17-3 (.850) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

The Red Sox are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 7-24 (.226) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Guardians are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox have scored first in 79% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Guardians hitters have just 456 strikeouts in 2,464 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Guardians have won 50% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Guardians pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): COVID-19, D10
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.