Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 19, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Red Sox (59-60) are -115 favorites vs the Orioles (61-57)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (3-4), 4.17 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (9-9), 4.47 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-105) on Friday, August 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 58-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 77-41 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +140O 8.5 +100-115
Orioles +1.5 -165U 8.5 -120-105

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 72.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+13.95 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.05 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 48 games at home (+15.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+14.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games at home (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games at home (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 48 games at home (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)

Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Anthony Santander 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Austin Hays 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Anthony Santander 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Austin Hays 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Jorge Mateo 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Ramon Urias 1.5 +185 1.5 -275

Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Anthony Santander 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Austin Hays 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jordan Lyles 3.5 -110 3.5 -125
Kutter Crawford 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 99 games (+7.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 98 games (+29.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 98 games (+27.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 1.97% ROI).

  • 58-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -5.12% ROI
  • 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -7.61% ROI
  • 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.35% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 77-41 against the Run Line (+27.9 Units / 17.88% ROI).

  • 61-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.5 Units / 18.88% ROI
  • 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -5.7% ROI
  • 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -1.94% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .062 (2-for-32) against Kutter Crawford with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .170 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (6/28) against Kutter Crawford — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 21% (3/14) against Kutter Crawford — 5th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (49/178) against Kutter Crawford this season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.

Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .234 (64-for-274) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — third Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .405 (111 Total Bases / 274 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — first Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .705 (303 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .477 — third Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has a strike rate of just 60% (409/684) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — third Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 2-46 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Red Sox are just 6-25 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.

The Red Sox are just 143-20 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Red Sox are just 3-44 (.064) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Orioles are just 28-35 (.444) on the road this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Orioles are just 73-93 (.440) at home since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Orioles are just 26-113 (.187) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting just .212 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Red Sox hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Orioles hitters have 341 strikeouts in 1,381 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Orioles are batting just .154 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Orioles hitters have just 14 strikeouts in 99 PA’s (14%) against LHP over the last 14 days (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 749 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.63 (538.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 4.93 (1228.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have won just just 15% of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.