- The Red Sox (59-61) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (62-57)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (7-1), 2.44 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish (1-4), 6.37 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Boston Red Sox (-125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+105) on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 58-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 78-41 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -120 | -125 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -155 | U 9 +100 | +105 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s matchup with 73.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+13.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+13.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 38 away games (+12.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 49 games at home (+16.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games at home (+13.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 47 games at home (+13.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+12.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +115 |
| Kyle Bradish | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+8.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 100 games (+6.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 68 of their last 99 games (+31.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 99 games (+28.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 57 games (+13.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 81 games (+9.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 52 of their last 96 games (+7.90 Units / 7% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 60-58 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 0.44% ROI).
- 58-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -5.86% ROI
- 52-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -6.77% ROI
- 56-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -0.42% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 78-41 against the Run Line (+29.7 Units / 18.92% ROI).
- 62-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.5 Units / 19.52% ROI
- 56-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -4.88% ROI
- 58-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -2.68% ROI
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .145 (11-for-76) against Michael Wacha on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .259 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 39% (330/837) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 49% (1,057/2,137) against Michael Wacha in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (2/14) against Michael Wacha — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 8.50 (36.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 3.88 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .378 (37-for-98) against Kyle Bradish versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .422 (54-for-128) against Kyle Bradish in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .328 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 72% (18/25) against Kyle Bradish against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 6-26 (.188) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Red Sox are just 2-47 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Red Sox are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-45 (.062) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 7-49 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Orioles are 34-22 (.607) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Orioles are just 26-148 (.149) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Orioles are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 57% against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Orioles are batting .425 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Orioles hitters have 343 strikeouts in 1,385 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.46 (407.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.26 (150.2 IP) this month (17 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 5 of 108 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
- Thomas Pham (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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