- The Red Sox (68-72) are -105 favorites vs the Orioles (73-66)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (6-6), 4.79 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish (3-5), 5.30 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-115) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 66-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 88-49 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 54 games (+20.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+20.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 away games (+17.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 47 away games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games at home (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 53 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -140 |
| Rich Hill | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 66 of their last 120 games (+9.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+12.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 69-66 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -0.44% ROI).
- 66-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 62-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -5.71% ROI
- 65-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -1.82% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 88-49 against the Run Line (+29.35 Units / 16.18% ROI).
- 73-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.15 Units / 19.72% ROI
- 62-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.75 Units / -9.75% ROI
- 71-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 2.02% ROI
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (497/1,105) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,881/4,065) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,409/3,210) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (275/851) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 8.06 (44.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 3.91 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has walked 3 of 15 left-handed batters (20%) this month (2 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .349 (45-for-129) against Kyle Bradish versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .258 — second Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .363 (70-for-193) against Kyle Bradish this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 150-20 (.882) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Red Sox are just 4-53 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 55-1 (.982) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .884.
The Orioles are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Orioles are 57-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Orioles are just 13-25 (.342) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .474 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .300 (7,638 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Orioles hitters have 363 strikeouts in 1,461 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Orioles are batting just .154 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Orioles hitters have drawn 710 walks in 9,390 PA’s (8%) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 291 barreled balls this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,463 times this season — 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.86 (1630.0 IP) at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (1216.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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