Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Red Sox (68-72) are -105 favorites vs the Orioles (73-66)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (6-6), 4.79 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish (3-5), 5.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-115) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 66-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 88-49 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +150O 8.5 -115-105
Orioles +1.5 -185U 8.5 -105-115

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Orioles vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 54 games (+20.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+20.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 away games (+17.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 47 away games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games at home (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 53 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)

Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Anthony Santander 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Austin Hays 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Ramon Urias 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200

Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Anthony Santander 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Austin Hays 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jorge Mateo 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Ramon Urias 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Anthony Santander 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Austin Hays 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Ramon Urias 0.5 +150 0.5 -225

Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Bradish 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
Rich Hill 3.5 -115 3.5 -125
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 66 of their last 120 games (+9.50 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+12.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 69-66 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -0.44% ROI).

  • 66-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -7.06% ROI
  • 62-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -5.71% ROI
  • 65-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -1.82% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 88-49 against the Run Line (+29.35 Units / 16.18% ROI).

  • 73-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.15 Units / 19.72% ROI
  • 62-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.75 Units / -9.75% ROI
  • 71-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 2.02% ROI

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (497/1,105) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,881/4,065) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,409/3,210) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (275/851) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Kyle Bradish: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 8.06 (44.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 3.91 — 0 Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has walked 3 of 15 left-handed batters (20%) this month (2 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .349 (45-for-129) against Kyle Bradish versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .258 — second Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .363 (70-for-193) against Kyle Bradish this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 150-20 (.882) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are just 4-53 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 55-1 (.982) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Orioles are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Orioles are 57-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Orioles are just 13-25 (.342) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .474 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .300 (7,638 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Orioles hitters have 363 strikeouts in 1,461 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Orioles are batting just .154 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Orioles hitters have drawn 710 walks in 9,390 PA’s (8%) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 291 barreled balls this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,463 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.86 (1630.0 IP) at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (1216.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Orioles vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.