- The Rays (76-58) are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox (67-70)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (9-10), 4.37 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (7-4), 2.61 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-190) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 64-66 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -135 | O 7 -110 | +155 |
| Rays | -1.5 +110 | U 7 -110 | -190 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+17.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+17.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 away games (+15.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+12.80 Units / 76% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.65 Units / 97% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+13.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
| Nick Pivetta | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+13.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+8.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 54 games at home (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 18 games at home (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-66 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -1.64% ROI).
- 65-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.85 Units / -6.59% ROI
- 61-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -5.05% ROI
- 63-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -2.43% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 64-66 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- 73-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -1.07% ROI
- 59-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -5.87% ROI
- 63-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -2.08% ROI
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 7.24 (54.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.43 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (209/1,049) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 153 of Nick Pivetta’s 655 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 18% (95/515) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 42% of the time (762/1,808) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (18/60) against Jeffrey Springs on pitches in the strike zone — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (164/336) against Jeffrey Springs with two-strikes this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-54 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Red Sox are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Red Sox are 22-15 (.595) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are just 63-8 (.887) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Rays are 13-10 (.565) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 47-8 (.855) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Rays are 24-99 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .183 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 834 strikeouts in 3,477 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 154 double plays in 2,011 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays have scored 1.56 runs per game (458/293) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 142 times since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.66 (630.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 754 of 10,923 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 153 of 2,664 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 60 of 1,202 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 922 of 13,135 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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