Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 07, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Rays (76-58) are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox (67-70)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (9-10), 4.37 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (7-4), 2.61 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-190) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 64-66 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -135O 7 -110+155
Rays -1.5 +110U 7 -110-190

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+17.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+17.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 away games (+15.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+12.80 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.65 Units / 97% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+13.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.25 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)

Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Manuel Margot 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +425 0.5 -900

Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Francisco Mejia 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Manuel Margot 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Randy Arozarena 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Taylor Walls 0.5 -125 0.5 -115

Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Manuel Margot 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeffrey Springs 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Nick Pivetta 4.5 -145 4.5 +105
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+13.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+8.55 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 54 games at home (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 18 games at home (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-66 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -1.64% ROI).

  • 65-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.85 Units / -6.59% ROI
  • 61-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -5.05% ROI
  • 63-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -2.43% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 64-66 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.32% ROI).

  • 73-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -1.07% ROI
  • 59-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -5.87% ROI
  • 63-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -2.08% ROI

Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 7.24 (54.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.43 — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (209/1,049) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 153 of Nick Pivetta’s 655 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 18% (95/515) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 42% of the time (762/1,808) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (18/60) against Jeffrey Springs on pitches in the strike zone — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 91st Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (164/336) against Jeffrey Springs with two-strikes this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 96th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 3-54 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Red Sox are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.

The Red Sox are 22-15 (.595) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are just 63-8 (.887) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Rays are 13-10 (.565) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 47-8 (.855) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Rays are 24-99 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .183 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rays hitters have 834 strikeouts in 3,477 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rays hitters have grounded into 154 double plays in 2,011 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Rays have scored 1.56 runs per game (458/293) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 142 times since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.66 (630.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

Rays pitchers have walked 754 of 10,923 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 153 of 2,664 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 60 of 1,202 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 922 of 13,135 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D10
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.