Red Sox vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (72-75) are -155 favorites vs the Reds (58-90)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Connor Seabold (0-2), 11.91 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Robert Anderson (1-3), 6.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Boston Red Sox (-155) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Red Sox vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 70-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 68-77 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 -105O 10.5 -115-155
Reds +1.5 -115U 10.5 -105+125

Red Sox vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 away games (+19.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+17.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 48 away games (+16.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 49 away games (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)

Reds vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Chuckie Robinson 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Donovan Solano 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jake Fraley 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Jonathan India 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

Reds vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Chuckie Robinson 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Donovan Solano 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Jake Fraley 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jonathan India 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Reds vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Chuckie Robinson 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Donovan Solano 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jake Fraley 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jonathan India 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Reds vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chase Anderson 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
Connor Seabold 3.5 +100 3.5 -140
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 73 away games (+7.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 61 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+3.05 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 22% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 73-69 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI).

  • 70-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -6.33% ROI
  • 65-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -6.22% ROI
  • 69-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -1.19% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-77 against the Run Line (-14.95 Units / -8.44% ROI).

  • 56-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.25 Units / -12.27% ROI
  • 70-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -6.08% ROI
  • 72-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -3.48% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Robert Anderson: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Chase Anderson has walked 9 of 44 batters (20%) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .059 (2-for-34) against Chase Anderson this month (3 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 100th Percentile.

Chase Anderson has not allowed a hit to any of the last 30 batters he’s faced after reaching two strikes. — Max Scherzer has the longest active streak at 39.

Chase Anderson has a strike rate of just 56% (122/220) this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Red Sox are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 5-55 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Red Sox are 22-15 (.595) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Reds are just 5-71 (.066) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Reds are just 42-9 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Reds are just 6-166 (.035) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Reds are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .362 (629 PA’s) this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Red Sox hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 3,191 of their 11,742 plate appearances (27%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Reds hitters have 752 strikeouts in 3,124 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Reds are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .644 (2,790 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 40% at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.61 (676.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.

Red Sox pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,172 of 11,887 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 555 of 5,688 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .277 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Reds pitchers have walked 246 of 2,745 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.