- The Cardinals (50-44) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (34-57)
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.44 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz (3-3), 6.02 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 34-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 51-43 ATS.
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -110 | +145 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -110 | -175 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 75.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+19.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 58 games (+19.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Miles Mikolas has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+9.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 32 games at home (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games at home (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nolan Arenado | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -125 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +120 |
| Steven Matz | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
| Steven Matz | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 65 games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 away games (+5.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 71 games (+6.15 Units / 8% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 42-49 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -11.97% ROI).
- 34-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.35 Units / -13.78% ROI
- 50-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 5.79% ROI
- 40-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -15.37% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 51-43 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 3.72% ROI).
- 50-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 44-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -6.93% ROI
- 46-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -2.18% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has walked 1 of 61 batters (2%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 7% (4 SO in 53 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (44/74) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 71% (15/21) against Graham Ashcraft against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Steven Matz: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .494 (41-for-83) against Steven Matz on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .486 (36-for-74) against Steven Matz on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .240 (103-for-430) against Steven Matz when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .188 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 10% (34/345) against Steven Matz since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 15% — fourth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Reds are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.
The Reds are just 3-48 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Reds are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Cardinals are 21-5 (.808) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Cardinals are 29-20 (.592) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .109 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds hitters have 125 strikeouts in 427 PA’s (29%) against RHP this month (16 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .338 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Reds hitters have an OPS of .790 (4,778 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 195 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,998 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .455 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Cardinals are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 352 of 3,532 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 717 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.29 (415.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 94 double plays in 693 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 80 of 834 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Dakota Hudson (Cardinals): Neck, D15
- Juan Yepez (Cardinals): Forearm, D10
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Edmundo Sosa (Cardinals): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Dauri Moreta (Reds): Undisclosed, D15
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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