Reds vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cardinals (50-44) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (34-57)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.44 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz (3-3), 6.02 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 34-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 51-43 ATS.

Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -135O 8.5 -110+145
Cardinals -1.5 +110U 8.5 -110-175

Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 75.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+19.70 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 58 games (+19.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Miles Mikolas has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+9.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 32 games at home (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games at home (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Brendan Donovan 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Corey Dickerson 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Nolan Arenado 1.5 +170 1.5 -250

Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Nolan Arenado 0.5 -105 0.5 -135

Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Graham Ashcraft 3.5 -110 3.5 -125
Graham Ashcraft 2.5 -175 2.5 +120
Steven Matz 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
Steven Matz 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 65 games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 away games (+5.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 71 games (+6.15 Units / 8% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 42-49 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -11.97% ROI).

  • 34-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.35 Units / -13.78% ROI
  • 50-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 5.79% ROI
  • 40-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -15.37% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 51-43 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 3.72% ROI).

  • 50-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.12% ROI
  • 44-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -6.93% ROI
  • 46-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -2.18% ROI

Graham Ashcraft has walked 1 of 61 batters (2%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 7% (4 SO in 53 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (44/74) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 71% (15/21) against Graham Ashcraft against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.

Steven Matz: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .494 (41-for-83) against Steven Matz on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .486 (36-for-74) against Steven Matz on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .240 (103-for-430) against Steven Matz when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .188 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 10% (34/345) against Steven Matz since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 15% — fourth Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Reds are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Reds are just 3-48 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Reds are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cardinals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Cardinals are 21-5 (.808) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Cardinals are 29-20 (.592) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Reds are batting just .109 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds hitters have 125 strikeouts in 427 PA’s (29%) against RHP this month (16 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Reds hitters are slugging just .338 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Reds hitters have an OPS of .790 (4,778 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.

Cardinals hitters have 195 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,998 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .455 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Cardinals are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 352 of 3,532 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 717 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.29 (415.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 94 double plays in 693 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 80 of 834 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Dakota Hudson (Cardinals): Neck, D15
  • Juan Yepez (Cardinals): Forearm, D10
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
  • Edmundo Sosa (Cardinals): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Dauri Moreta (Reds): Undisclosed, D15
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.